Betting benchmark - McCain vs Obama

Thursday, September 4th, 2008

OK - as McCain starts his speech at 4 September 22:13 ET time, the Betfair line is Obama $1.60 - McCain $2.74.
Lets set that as a betting benchmark to monitor what happens from now, as this campaign really gets going. The phoney war is certainly now over, though that phase probably ended with the DNC convention.
One thing occurs to this [...]

Polls diverge, McCain drifts in betting - arbitrage opportunity

Monday, August 11th, 2008

The Pollsters & ChimbaChumba’s Poll of PollAverages 
                              Pollster    45.9   -   43.4       (+ 2.5%)  (no change)
                              CNN        48.0   -   43.0       (+ 5.0%)  (no change)
                              RCP        46.8   -   42.0       (+ 4.8%)  (y’day +4.4)
                              538         49.7   -   47.8        (+ 1.9%)  (y’day +2.0)
ChimbaChumba’s Poll of PollAverages: Obama +3.55%   (yesterday +3.45%)
 
Betting Market (Betfair)
Obama $1.53, McCain $3.15 (y’day - Obama $1.54, McCain $3.10)

The [...]

Obama poll lead reduced, odds unchanged

Friday, August 8th, 2008

                                         Obama  McCain
                            Pollster    45.9   -   43.5      (+ 2.4%)
                            CNN        48.0   -   43.0      (+ 5.0%)
                            RCP        46.9   -   43.3      (+ 2.6%)
                            538         49.5   -   47.6       (+ 1.9%)
ChimbaChumba’s Poll of Pollaverages: Obama +2.98%
 
The Betting Market -  McCain’s price unchanged at $3.02 (which translates to McCain 33%, Obama 67%).
Rasmussen Balance of Power Calculator - Obama 60.2%