Sarah Palin not the mother? Punters don’t believe, or don’t think it matters
Sunday, August 31st, 2008The internet is abuzz with the “story” that Sarah Palin is not the mother of the “5th child”.
We make no further comment in respect of the story.
But we are keenly interested in the potential impact on the betting market, whether the story is bullshit or not. So far the odds are unaffected i.e.
Betfair Odds 12 hours ago [...]
No action at the racetrack today
Saturday, August 30th, 2008
ChimbaChumba’s “PollOfPollAverages” (national polls)
Pollster 46.5 - 44.9 = Obama +1.6% (no change)
CNN 46.0 - 42.0 = Obama + 4.0% (no change)
RCP 47.7 - 43.8 = Obama + 3.9% (y’day +2.9%)
538 EP 48.8 - 47.9 = Obama + 0.9 (y’day +0.8%)
Gallup 49.0 - 41.0 = Obama +8.0 (y’day +6.0)
ChimbaChumbaAverage: Obama +3.68% (y’day +3.06%)
ChimbaChumba says: no change in the national poll averages today [...]
McCain hits the front in 2008 Presidential race?
Monday, August 18th, 2008The Pollsters & ChimbaChumba’s PollOfPollAverages
Obama McCain
Pollster 45.2 - 43.0 (+ 2.2%) (y’day +2.3%)
CNN 47.0 - 41.0 (+ 6.0%) (no change)
RCP 45.4 - 41.8 (+ 3.6%) (y’day +3.2%)
538 49.1 - 48.2 (+ 0.9%) (y’day +1.2)
ChimbaChumba’s PollOfPollAverages: Obama +3.17% (no change)
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Betting Market (Betfair)
Obama $1.53, McCain $3.15 (y’day - Obama $1.52, McCain [...]
Polls diverge, McCain drifts in betting - arbitrage opportunity
Monday, August 11th, 2008The Pollsters & ChimbaChumba’s Poll of PollAverages
Pollster 45.9 - 43.4 (+ 2.5%) (no change)
CNN 48.0 - 43.0 (+ 5.0%) (no change)
RCP 46.8 - 42.0 (+ 4.8%) (y’day +4.4)
538 49.7 - 47.8 (+ 1.9%) (y’day +2.0)
ChimbaChumba’s Poll of PollAverages: Obama +3.55% (yesterday +3.45%)
Betting Market (Betfair)
Obama $1.53, McCain $3.15 (y’day - Obama $1.54, McCain $3.10)
The [...]
