Obama retakes Ohio. Convention bubble or..?
“ChimbaChumba’s PollOfPollAverages” (national polls)
Pollster 48.4 - 45.7 = Obama +2.7% (2 days ago +1.6)
CNN 49.0 - 44.0 = Obama + 5.0% (2 days ago +4.0)
RCP 48.8 - 44.3 = Obama + 4.5% (2 days ago +3.9)
538 EP 49.3 - 47.6 = Obama + 1.7 (2 days ago +0.9)
Gallup 49.0 - 43.0 = Obama +6.0 (2 days ago +8.0)
ChimbaChumbaAverage: Obama +3.98% (y’day +3.68%)
ChimbaChumba says: Obama + 3.98% is probably the DEM Convention-Sarah Palin benchmark. Obama’s high was +4.25% on 13 August, after which he went to Berlin, stopped the rise in the oceans, and slumped to +0.95% on 20 August. Well, he is now getting back towards his high point. Is this just “the usual Convention bubble“? If so, it is actually on the low side, but bear in mind 538 and Pollster “model” their numbers.
On that topic, I note that 538 has adjusted their formula to remove the “convention bounce adjustment factor“ from their model - ffs, make up your mind 538! They retain a “smoother“, supposedly adjusting for short-term flucs. This change in methodology has dramatically altered 538’s “winning percentage” (see under “The Handicappers below).
On the other hand, the Gallup number is only a 3 day rolling average, and Gallup does reflect the more typical DEM ”Convention bubble” (but still a little on the low side).
Betting market: Obama $1.61, McCain $2.76 (y’day $1.63, $2.74)
“The Handicappers” - Obama’s Win Percentage
Betfair ($1.61 adjusted to 100% price): 63.03% (y’day 61.68%)
538 Electoral Predictions: 64.90% (y’day 58.90%)
Rasmussen Balance of Power Calculator: 61.10% (y’day 59.50%)
ChimbaChumba says: Betting market in a narrow range for the last week, Obama between $1.58 -$1.64, and McCain between $2.62-$2.80.
ChimbaChumba’s Daily “PollofPollAverages” in key battleground states, and the Electoral College vote tracker
The first poll on this blog measures the average of national polls. In this section we keep a daily watch on state polls in Ohio & Colorado (and from today Virginia), two three key battleground states. Every Saturday we expand the analysis to 8 battleground states. In this section we also include a daily update of the Electoral College vote count from all states, awarding the electoral votes for each state based on today’s poll average for each specific state (i.e. disregarding the national polls).
OK - I admit Plouffe may be right re Virginia - we are going to add it to our daily watch of key battlegrounds. With 21% African-American population, and Plouffe’s alleged groundgame skills, who knows what will happen in Virginia. From a punter’s perspective it is perplexing whether polls will be a reliable formguide in a state like Virginia.
To make the table simpler, we are not reporting separate numbers from RCP, Pollster and 538, just the ChimbaChumba average of all 3 “pollaveragers”. From 538 we choose to take the “trend-adjusted number“, not their “regression adjusted number“.
Colorado - Obama +1.23% (2 days ago +1.03)
Ohioooo - Obama + 0.26% (2 days ago -0.10%)
Virginia - Obama +0.73% (2 days ago +0.33%)
This may just be “convention bubble“, but Obama snatched back Ohio today, which is arguably the most critical battleground states with 20 EC votes. Obama took Virginia a few days ago as well, so the Electoral College Vote Tracker looks damn good for Obama at this moment.
Sweaty week ahead for McCain punters, hoping that bubble bursts, and only one of Palin’s daughters is pregnant! One is an accident, two is….
ChimbaChumba’s Electoral College Vote Tracker
Obama: 260 EC votes + New Hampshire(4) + Colorado(9) + Ohio(20) + Virginia(13) = 306 EC votes (+20)no change)
McCain: 227 EC votes + Nevada(5) = 232 EC votes (-20)
Sarah Palin not the mother? Punters don’t believe, or don’t think it matters
The internet is abuzz with the “story” that Sarah Palin is not the mother of the “5th child”.
We make no further comment in respect of the story.
But we are keenly interested in the potential impact on the betting market, whether the story is bullshit or not. So far the odds are unaffected i.e.
Betfair Odds 12 hours ago - Obama $1.63 McCain $2.74
Betfair Odds now - Obama $1.61 McCain $2.72
Diverting for a moment - 3 new developments. One break for McCain today is the news that Bush won’t attend the GOP Convention because he needs to monitor Gustav - wow - thats very useful for McCain! Gallup just out has gap reduced from 8% to 6% which includes two days of interviews (out of the 4 days in the poll) after Obama’s acceptance speech as well as McCain’s vice-presidential announcement. And I just read an interesting snippet at Politico, saying Palin has electrified what was till now an unenthusiastic GOP base (the anti-abortionists, the gun lobby etc). This could be important when it comes to GOTV (get out the vote). This could negate Plouffe’s alleged superior ground game skills, which could have carried at least Virginia for Obama, and more states if you buy Plouffe’s plan. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/13016.html
Returning to the baby story, (which if true would be a bigger story than Lindy Chamberlain, Azaria and the dingo). One reason the betting may not be effected is because no-one believes the story. On the other hand, perhaps simply not enough people have picked up on the story yet. I haven’t seen mention on CNN or FOX - has anyone seen it anywhere except the trash blogs?
If the rumour is not true? It arguably helps McCain/Palin if Palin is victim of a scurrilous attack. They can claim she was swiftboated (even though the boat sank).
If the rumour is true? I am not sure - it would be such an amazing and unprecedented turn of events how could anyone know what it does to McCain’s chances. Palin has arguably behaved in an extremely noble fashion viz her daughter, and held true to her core values (if it is a true story). If she told some “necessary fibs” along the way, is that such a dealbreaker in the circumstances? Perhaps it is - I have no damn idea. Could there even be a sympathy vote?
And whilst I think it would be harder/impossible for a Presidential candidate to survive such a story, I don’t buy the idea voters will evaluate Palin as someone who must be capable of being Commander-in-Chief. Thats just a weak and obvious political argument in my opinion.
Despite McCain’s age, which makes it more likely Palin could be numero uno, I still don’t think voters give a damn whether VEEP is ready to be C-i-C. Remember Dan Quayle? Though sager heads than mine point out that Bush the 1st (with Quayle as VEEP) was only up against Dukakis. But anyway, I still think voters are not that “analytical”, whereby they would switch because McCain might fall off the twig. And anyway - lets say he does fall off the twig after say 2 years - Sarah will have had 2 years experience as VEEP!
FOOTNOTE - if you are not a punter, you might wonder how both candidates can shorten at the same time (as they did in our comparison above). Thats because the market at Betfair fluctuates from being “very competitive” to “not so competitive”. All thats really changed is, prior to adjusting for 2% commission to Betfair, its gone from being a 97.85% market to 98.87% market. Its like when the bookies first put up the odds at the track - initially its an uncompetitive quote, and sometimes the price on every horse gets better - the market starts at say 135% and finishes at 108%.
No action at the racetrack today
ChimbaChumba’s “PollOfPollAverages” (national polls)
Pollster 46.5 - 44.9 = Obama +1.6% (no change)
CNN 46.0 - 42.0 = Obama + 4.0% (no change)
RCP 47.7 - 43.8 = Obama + 3.9% (y’day +2.9%)
538 EP 48.8 - 47.9 = Obama + 0.9 (y’day +0.8%)
Gallup 49.0 - 41.0 = Obama +8.0 (y’day +6.0)
ChimbaChumbaAverage: Obama +3.68% (y’day +3.06%)
ChimbaChumba says: no change in the national poll averages today (Saturday 23.30 ET time).
Betting market: Obama $1.63, McCain $2.74 (y’day $1.62, $2.62)
“The Handicappers” - Obama’s Win Percentage
Betfair ($1.63 adjusted to 100% price): 62.58% (y’day 61.68%)
538 Electoral Predictions: 58.90% (y’day 58.00%)
Rasmussen Balance of Power Calculator: 60.00% (y’day 59.50%)
ChimbaChumba says: betting market settles down a little, after what might have been an over-reaction to the Sarah Palin VEEP pick. However, so far the punters still favour Palin, because the odds 12 hours before Palin were Obama $1.58, McCain $2.80. And this drift in Obama’s price is at a time when his poll numbers are on the up, so the move in the betting market can only be attributed to Sarah Palin (nothing else happened in that time). Will the punters expectation that Palin is a plus be matched in the poll numbers? We can only wait and see (by about next Friday the polls should provide the answer).
ChimbaChumba’s Daily “PollofPollAverages” in key battleground states, and the Electoral College vote tracker
There was no change to the state polls today, so we will not update the battleground states numbers (look at yesterday’s blog if you want to see the state numbers). The Electoral College Vote tracker is unchanged -
ChimbaChumba’s Electoral College Vote Tracker
Obama: 260 EC votes + New Hampshire(4) + Colorado(9) + Virginia(13) = 286 EC votes (+13)
McCain: 227 EC votes + Ohio(20) + Nevada(5) = 252 EC votes (-13)
Lets take a look a look at the reaction in the press to the Sarah Palin, and try and get a handle on whether it really should effect the odds or is irrelevant. Traditionally VEEPs don’t really count much, but there is some arguing it is different in 2008 because of the factors specific to this race.
Let me first declare my bias - I think Palin is fabulous, and from the little I have seen and read she appears a unique politician - natural warmth, no bullshit, tough and dynamic. And whilst inexperience might undo her, I think its a bold and a good gamble by McCain that maximises his chance to win. McCain was coming from behind in a year that heavily favours the Democrats - his other VEEP options were dodgy or stale, and would not have added anything to his winning chance. Sarah Palin might prove to be the same, or even worse - but at least McCain has rolled the dice, rather than remaining frozen in the spotlight.
What gells with my first impression of Palin is what her 2 opponents who ran against Palin for governor in 2006, said . “Tony and I looked at each other and it was, like, this isn’t about policy or Alaska issues, this is about people’s most basic instincts: ‘I like you (Palin), and you make me feel good.”
Now, if she looks stupid in the debates, then forget it. But what I saw was a natural politician that can connect with people (the new Bill Clinton?). These types are rare, and maybe I will be made look foolish with this appraisal. I see her as a “real and genuine person”, not a politician. And tough to boot, and some concrete achievements notwithstanding a very short resume. Her Alaska record connects with McCain’s anti-Washington platform - and adds reality to the rhetoric.
What I think the Palin-critics overlook is that she is not on the ticket to win feminists or political activists on the left. She is on the ticket to shore up the right, plus hopefully grab 2% in the “middle” or from “anywhere”. The 2% (if they exist), might be Ohio mums in the supermarket, or closet racists who now have an excuse to vote GOP (choosing the “female historic opportunity”, rather than the “African-American historic opportunity”. And from the little polling we have seen it indicates Sarah is more popular with men than women - perhaps that should be no surprise! (a) she looks pretty damn good! (b) and maybe she just impressed blokes on her merits i.e. the dynamic no-nonsense image might go down well with blokes?
Enough of my jaundiced comments - below is a snapshot of the different views in today’s press - you make up your own mind what the post-Palin odds should be.
Sarah Palin - gamebreaker, disaster or neutral?
- Senior Clinton advisers said there had always been one big card that McCain could play to exploit the rift between Clinton and Obama supporters — and McCain played it. Howard Wolfson, Clinton’s former communications director, said Palin could peel away some votes from Obama and Biden. “Both campaigns seemed to have decided that Hillary Clinton’s 18 million voters represent a key swing bloc in this election — both Barack Obama’s speech and John McCain’s pick were at least partially aimed at them,” Wolfson said in an e-mail. “The fact that Palin is pro-life and pro-gun will be a block for many of Senator Clinton’s supporters — but not all. And it will raise the question for many why Senator Obama didn’t pick Senator Clinton as his running mate.”
- Political pandering that insults women.
- Hillary Clinton’s statement - “While their policies would take America in the wrong direction, Governor Palin will add an important new voice to the debate.” I reckon the underlined part was a not very subtle dig at Obama - I don’t think TeamObama will be pleased. It is going to be interesting to watch Hillary and Bill during the campaign.
- The pro-gun, antiabortion Palin won’t flip Hillary-supporters.
- Plouffe, Obama’s campaign manager, described Palin as a politician “with a compelling story” who is likely to be an effective campaigner. But, he said, she will be campaigning on McCain’s agenda, which he argued is a continuation of Bush’s. “Our view is that Obama’s and McCain’s agendas are on the ballot,” he said.That is always the case in presidential campaigns. In the end, vice presidential candidates generally make little difference. But Friday’s uproar over Palin — positive and negative — says this is one pick that, at least in the short term, might make a difference.
- …an inexperienced right-winger. She really destroys the ‘Obama not ready’ mantra,” another strategist noted.
- what tipped the balance toward Palin was that she gives McCain a partner with a record of challenging the establishment in her own party and in Anchorage, reinforcing the case that he would be more fearless and effective than Obama in taking on special interests in Washington. “I have found the right partner to help me stand up to those who value their privileges over their responsibilities, who put power over principle, and put their interests before your needs,” McCain said in introducing Palin on Friday. “I found someone with an outstanding reputation for standing up to special interests and entrenched bureaucracies; someone who has fought against corruption and the failed policies of the past.“
- McCain’s advisers predicted weeks ago that the presumptive Republican nominee would use his national convention week to try to recapture his image as a maverick reformer and shake up the presidential race. He did just that Friday with his surprise choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate. Though indisputably Alaskan, she rose to prominence by bucking the state’s rigid Republican hierarchy, impressing voters more with gumption, warmth and charm than an established record in government.
- It was a combination that dumbfounded her rivals. “She wouldn’t have articulated one coherent policy and people would just be fawning all over her,” said Andrew Halcro, a Republican turned independent, who along with Tony Knowles, a Democrat, ran against Ms. Palin for governor in 2006. “Tony and I looked at each other and it was, like, this isn’t about policy or Alaska issues, this is about people’s most basic instincts: ‘I like you, and you make me feel good.’ ”
- from Slate - “All the papers lead with John McCain’s surprise selection of Alaska governor Sarah Palin for his running mate. He shocked election-watchers and scrambled the presidential race with a “Hail Mary pass“–eschewing more conventional choices for the inexperienced, socially conservative, corruption-fighting “hockey mom.” Appearing together in Ohio, McCain lauded her reform credentials, while Palin framed her candidacy as an extension of Hillary Clinton’s quest to “shatter [the] glass ceiling.”The New York Times, Los Angeles Times, Washington Post, and Wall Street Journal call it a risky play to revitalize John McCain’s “maverick” image. Choosing Palin undercuts the argument that Barack Obama is too inexperienced, raising questions about John McCain’s age and judgment. But it could pay off: Palin–an NRA member and staunch pro-lifer–is energizing evangelicals and tempting Hillary Clinton voters to defect. An LAT analysis piece worries it’s a sign that McCain relies on short-sighted “gut-checks,” while an early version of the WSJ lead called it a “calculated bet.” It’s likely a bit of both–McCain’s a high-stakes gambler who knows the odds.
Obama’s speech or Sarah Palin? Polls go for the speech, punters go for Palin…
ChimbaChumba’s “PollOfPollAverages” (national polls)
Pollster 46.5 - 44.9 = Obama +1.6% (no change)
CNN 46.0 - 42.0 = Obama + 4.0% (no change)
RCP 47.7 - 43.8 = Obama + 3.9% (y’day +2.9%)
538 EP 48.8 - 47.9 = Obama + 0.9 (y’day +0.8%)
Gallup 49.0 - 41.0 = Obama +8.0 (y’day +6.0)
ChimbaChumbaAverage: Obama +3.68% (y’day +3.06%)
Obama jumps again today to +3.68%. His biggest lead was +4.25 on 13 August, his low point +0.95 on 20 August. Today’s improvement is presumably the 1st instalment of Obama’s Convention bounce, and it may be it is not yet fully reflected in the polls. Remember, the traditional DEM “poll convention bounces” have been 5-9%, so arguably punters should devalue the current polls. Once the Palin appointment has been digested and the GOP convention held, the polls will tell a truer story (about 10 days from now). But remember - the election will ultimately be decided when the debates start, and the real campaign gets going. Only then can we put a lot of faith in the polls, and make a clearer assessment of the correct odds for each horse.
In the betting market punters ignored Obama’s speech and the uptick in his polls, and on the back of the Palin VP pick shortened McCain’s price to $2.62.
Betting Market (Betfair): Obama $1.62, McCain $2.62 (y’day $1.58, $2.80)
“The Handicappers” - Obama’s Win Percentage
Betfair ($1.62 adjusted to 100% price): 61.68% (y’day 63.80%)
538 Electoral Predictions: 58.00% (y’day 57.50%)
Rasmussen Balance of Power Calculator: 59.50% (y’day 60.20%)
ChimbaChumba’s Daily “PollofPollAverages” in key battleground states, and the Electoral College vote tracker
The first poll on this blog measures the average of national polls. In this section we keep a watch on state polls in key battleground states. Every day we track Ohio and Colorado, but on Friday night ET time we do a weekly analysis of 8 battleground states. We also update the Electoral College vote count based on the state polls (i.e. we disregard the national polls).
ChimbaChumba’s Electoral College Vote Tracker
Obama: 260 EC votes + New Hampshire(4) + Colorado(9) + Virginia(13) = 286 EC votes (+13)
McCain: 227 EC votes + Ohio(20) + Nevada(5) = 252 EC votes (-13)
ChimbaChumba says - Virginia flips to Obama ! Obama ”wins” the Presidential election by 34 EC votes!
ChumbaChumba’s Weekly Battleground States “PollOfPollAverages”
In the “ChimbaChumbaAverage” column below, the numbers in brackets on the right are the comparable average from the last 3 weeks to show the movement in that period. All numbers are expressed in terms of Obama’s position i.e. - means Obama is trailing, + means Obama is ahead.
538 Pollster RCP ChimbaChumbaAverage
Nevada (5) -1.0 -0.7 -1.0 -0.90 (-1.1, -2.2, +1.0)
Ohio (20) -0.8 +1.7 -1.2 -0.10 (-0.5, +1.5, +1.8)
Virginia (13) -0.3 +1.3 0.0 +0.33 (-0.5, -0.2, +1.3)
Colorado (9) +0.9 +1.8 +0.4 +1.03 (-0.17, +0.7, +1.7)
Iowa (7) +5.5 +6.5 +5.3 +5.77 (+5.4, +5.6, +5.9)
New Mexico (5) +5.7 +7.2 +4.3 +5.73 (+4.5, +6.0, +6.3)
Michigan (17) +2.9 +5.1 +4.3 +4.10 (+3.7, +3.8, +4.0)
New Hamp. (4) +1.3 +1.6 +0.3 +1.06 (+1.3, +3.3, +3.6)
Average (all 8 States) +1.7 +3.1 +1.5 +2.13%
Last weeks average +0.59 +2.92 +1.21 +1.57%
2 weeks ago average +1.55 +3.55 +1.84 +2.31%
3 weeks ago average +2.55 +3.76 +2.60 +2.95%
ChimbaChumba says - This is the 4th week we have calculated the ChimbaChumba average for these 8 states, so what is important this week? Bear in mind these movements occur during the DEM convention week.
By grabbing Virginia, Obama now has the lead in sufficient battleground states to enable him to “win” the election by a bigger margin than last week.
McCain’s lead in the crucial state of Ohio has been cut to the barest of margins. He also hangs on narrowly in Nevada.
Obama has maintained solid leads in Iowa, New Mexico and Michigan. Michigan had looked a little shaky, but looks much better for Obama now. Interestingly, New Hampshire went against the trend, moving a little towards McCain. Over the last 21 days Obama’s lead in New Hampshire, as measured under the ChimbaChumbaAverage, has been cut from 3.6% to 1.06%.
