2nd nominee for the “ChimbaChumba Twisted Pundit Golden Gong Award”
2nd nominee for “ChimbaChumba Twisted Pundit Golden Gong Award”
On our 29 August blog, we said this:
“As I type, McCain shortens to $2.66 on Betfair as Palin closes her speech - the punters love her. 2 minutes later McCain is $2.58!!! Twenty minutes later McCain/Palin sceptics step in, and McCain drifts back to $2.62. One thing you can bet on without risk - the Palin selection will torture the pundits who were rooting for Obama - watch them twist and turn looking for a way to bag Palin“.
Our first nominee was found 30 minutes later (Dee Dee from Vanity Fair) - a copy of Dee Dee’s comments is posted lower on this page.
Thanks to William Safire from “The Weekly Standard” for identifying our 2nd nominee - Hanna Rosin of Slate! The following is an extract from Safire’s article, which includes Hanna’s egregious remarks in bold below, earning Hanna the 2nd nomination for the “ChimbaChumba Twisted Pundit Golden Gong Award” .
Safire: A special thank you to our friends in the liberal media establishment. Who knew they would come through so spectacularly? The ludicrous media feeding frenzy about the Palin family hyped interest in her speech, enabling her to win a huge audience for her smashing success Wednesday night at the convention. Indeed, it even renewed interest in McCain, who seems to have gotten still more viewers for his less smashing–but well-received–presentation the following evening.
The astounding (even to me, after all these years!) smugness and mean-spiritedness of so many in the media engendered not just interest in but sympathy for Palin. It allowed Palin to speak not just to conservatives but to the many Americans who are repulsed by the media’s prurient interest in and adolescent snickering about her family. It allowed the McCain-Palin ticket to become the populist standard-bearer against an Obama-Media ticket that has disdain for Middle America.
By the end of the week, after Palin’s tour de force in St. Paul, the liberal media were so befuddled that they were reduced to complaining that conservatives aren’t being narrow-minded enough. Thus, Hanna Rosin–who has covered religion and politics for the Washington Post, and has also written for the New Yorker, the New Republic, and the New York Times–lamented in a piece for Slate: “So cavalier are conservatives about Sarah Palin’s wreck of a home life that they make the rest of us look stuffy and slow-witted by comparison.”
… what in the world can she be thinking when she refers to “Sarah Palin’s wreck of a home life”? The only “domestic irregularities” (to use Ms. Rosin’s loaded term) she cites are “two difficult pregnancies–Palin’s with a Down syndrome baby and now her unmarried teenage daughter’s.” The second of these is a situation that the young woman and her family seem to be dealing with appropriately by their own lights. “Bristol and the young man she will marry are going to realize very quickly the difficulties of raising a child, which is why they will have the love and support of our entire family,” the Palins said. But what is “irregular” about bringing to term a Down syndrome child? Is Rosin suggesting–without having the courage to say so–that Mrs. Palin should have aborted the baby? Is it upsetting to her to have a prominent woman choose not to do so?
1st nominee for the ChimbaChumba Twisted Pundit Golden Gong Award (29 August)
It took about 30 minutes to get an excellent 1st nominee - from Vanity Fair, that renowned oracle Dee Dee Myers who says - “But is she ready to be commander-in-chief? Unlike Barack Obama, whom McCain has so emphatically condemned as not-ready, Palin hasn’t run for or served in the Senate. Nor has she run for president, which would have required her to think through and take positions on critical issues from the war in Iraq to the war on terror, from Iran’s nuclear ambitions to the Russian incursion into Georgia, from the emerging power of China to the march of globalization“. She hasn’t served in the Senate - most new Presidents are Governors (Dee Dee even suggests just “running for the Senate is important…go figure). But why Dee Dee earns our 1st nominatiuon is the ludicrous comment that she hasn’t run for President!! Why say this? Because that way Dee Dee avoids shooting Obama with the same “inexperience bullet”! Obama has Commander-in-Chief experience because he has run for President! Therefore, everyone who runs to be Prez has the right stuff to be Commander-in-Chief. Lets not complicate matters stemming from the point Sarah picks up a little “experience” Dee Dee values so much by running for VEEP. Congrats to Dee Dee - a very worthy nominee
Conventions over, polls start to trend back toward an even race
ChimbaChumba’s “PollOfPollAverages” (national polls)
We create our own average from 5 pollsters that themselves do a form of “poll-averaging”. Hopefully we smooth out the bumps or discrepancies from the different methodologies, thereby creating a more reliable number as a “form-guide” for betting on the 2008 USA Presidential election. Our average is named the “ChimbaChumbaAverage“.
Pollster 48.1 – 42.4 = Obama +5.2% (3 days ago +5.2)
CNN 47.0 – 43.0 = Obama + 4.0% (3 days ago +5.0)
RCP 46.6 – 44.0 = Obama + 2.6% (3 days ago +6.4)
538 EP 50.0 – 47.1 = Obama + 2.9% (3 days ago +2.4)
Gallup 48.0 – 44.0 = Obama +4.0% (3 days ago +8.0)
ChimbaChumbaAverage: Obama +3.7% (3 days ago +5.6)
ChimbaChumba says: Obama’s Convention-poll-bubble begins to shrink, and will shrink further in the next few days as the “pollaveragers” absorb the more recent national polls. The Palin appointment has energised the GOP base, and even McCain seems more enthused. The punters have stepped in to trim McCain’s price to $2.70. I still feel this is a large overlay, with the race looking more competitive since Palin arrived - I think there is a 50-60% chance McCain’s odds will be circa $2.30 soemtime in the next 10 days.
Betting market: Obama $1.62, McCain $2.70 (3 days ago $1.54, $2.98)
“The Handicappers” - Obama’s Win Percentage
Betfair ($1.62 adjusted to 100% price): 62.4% (3 days ago 65.8%)
538 Electoral Predictions: 70.3% (3 days ago 68.5%)
Rasmussen Balance of Power Calculator: 58.3% (3 days ago 61.9%)
ChimbaChumba says - I am flummoxed how 538’s model punches out a 70.3% winning chance for Obama, simply in comparison to 538’s own earlier estimate when the poll numbers were much the same. 538 has made a number of changes to its projection model lately, and I think it has gone haywire. They will fix it, they are a smart mob, but at the moment I don’t trust it.
Battleground states
ChimbaChumba’s “PollofPollAverages” (state polls)
The first poll on this blog measures the average of national polls. In this section we keep a watch on state polls in key battleground states. Every day we track Ohio, Virginia and Colorado, but once a week, on Friday 23.00 ET time, we expand the analysis to 8 battleground states.
We also update the Electoral College vote count based on the state polls (i.e. we disregard the national polls). This is very dodgy at the moment with very few new reliable state polls from the battleground last week.
ChimbaChumba’s Weekly Battleground States “PollOfPollAverages”
In the “ChimbaChumbaAverage” column below, the numbers in blue show the position in each of the 8 states. All numbers are expressed in terms of Obama’s position i.e. + means Obama is ahead, - means Obama is trailing.
For example, today Obama trails by 0.5% in Nevada, but leads by 1.1% in Ohio. The numbers in brackets on the right are the comparable average in each state from the last 4 weeks e.g. in Nevada 4 weeks ago Obama was +1.0%, 3 weeks ago Obama was -2.2% in Nevada, 2 weeks ago he was -1.1%, last week he was -0.9, and today Obama is -0.5% in the ChimbaChumba average of the state poll-averages from 538, Pollster and RCP.
Below the main table the average of each of the pollsters is shown in the prior weeks - maybe we will identify a bias by being able to look at the history. Under the CCAverage, we show Obama’s average lead or deficit in each of the 8 states, as well as the avaerage lead held by Obama across all 8 states. The latter number has no purpose except to monitor overall movement across these 8 battleground states, which could be important if it indicated a different trend to the national polls. This week Obama has an average lead across all 8 battlegrounds of 3.2%, up from 2.1% last week, and 1.6% the previous week etc.
538 Pollster RCP ChimbaChumbaAverage
Nevada (5) +0.3 -0.7 -1.0 -0.5 (-0.9, -1.1, -2.2, +1.0)
Ohio (20) +2.0 +1.9 -0.6 +1.1 (-0.1, -0.5, +1.5, +1.8)
Virginia (13) +2.4 +1.3 0.0 +1.2 (+0.3, -0.5, -0.2, +1.3)
Colorado (9) +2.3 +1.8 +0.4 +1.5 (+1.0, -0.2, +0.7, +1.7)
Iowa (7) +9.6 +8.9 +9.0 +9.2 (+5.8, +5.4, +5.6, +5.9)
New Mexico (5) +8.3 +7.2 +4.3 +6.6 (+5.7, +4.5, +6.0, +6.3)
Michigan (17) +4.8 +5.1 +4.3 +4.7 (+4.1, +3.7, +3.8, +4.0)
New Hamp. (4) +3.9 +1.6 +0.3 +1.9 (+1.1, +1.3, +3.3, +3.6)
Pollster Average +4.2 +3.4 +2.1 +3.2%
Average 1 week ago +1.7 +3.1 +1.5 +2.1%
Average 2 weeks ago +0.6 +2.9 +1.2 +1.6%
Average 3 weeks ago +1.5 +3.6 +1.8 +2.3%
Average 4 weeks ago +2.5 +3.8 +2.6 +2.9%
ChimbaChumba’s Electoral College Vote Tracker
Obama: 260 EC votes + New Hampshire(4) + Colorado(9) + Virginia(13) + Ohio(20) = 306 EC votes
McCain: 227 EC votes + Nevada(5) = 232 EC votes
ChimbaChumba says: Last week Virginia flipped to Obama, this week Obama takes Ohio as well. I suspect the current state polls are misleading, as Obama’s lead in the national polls has been trimmed, and looks like narrowing further, and there was only a handful of quality state polls in the last week.
Betting benchmark - McCain vs Obama
OK - as McCain starts his speech at 4 September 22:13 ET time, the Betfair line is Obama $1.60 - McCain $2.74.
Lets set that as a betting benchmark to monitor what happens from now, as this campaign really gets going. The phoney war is certainly now over, though that phase probably ended with the DNC convention.
One thing occurs to this jaundiced observer, watching the McCain lifestory before he speaks, is the difference between the “people” on each team - McCain/Palin vs Obama/Biden. If the election turns on “people” not “policies/past 8 years”, then imho Team McCain romps in.
But if “policies/past 8 years” is more dominant then its Obama.
Also, we aint seen McCain speak yet. Will he be any good? How much will the Convention speech effect his chances on election day anyway? Probably the debates might be more influential in respect of McCain’s oratory and capacity to think on his feet, and that is an arena that many think favours the Harvard law graduate and civil rights attorney - time will tell.
Sarah Palin knocking their socks off! McCain’s odds tumble
How could anyone not vote for someone with children named Track, Bristol, Willow Piper and Trig?
How could anyone reject a hockey-mum?
McCain in to $2.74 I see as I write this…gtg to court try and dodge insolvency…..need a McCain betting plunge to get out! I will be interested to see the odds on Mac upon return - wish I knew how to set the DVD recorder :( Knock their socks off Sarah! (is batting beautifully 15 minutes in to speech).
POSTSCRIPT 6 HOURS LATER: McCain drifts back out to $2.82. ChimbaChumba is not insolvent!!
McCain blows in the betting, Obama hits poll high
ChimbaChumba’s PollOfPollAverages” (national polls)
Pollster 48.8 - 43.6 = Obama +5.2% (y’day +2.7)
CNN 49.0 - 43.0 = Obama + 5.0% (y’day +5.0)
RCP 49.2 - 42.8 = Obama + 6.4% (y’day +4.5)
538 EP 49.7 - 47.3 = Obama + 2.4 (y’day + 1.7)
Gallup 50.0 - 42.0 = Obama +8.0 (y’day +6.0)
ChimbaChumbaAverage: Obama +5.60% (y’day +3.98%)
ChimbaChumba says: Obama bounds ahead from + 3.98% to +5.60% in the national polls, a new high point for Obama. The same question arises - is it mere convention bubble or not? If just a “Convention bubble“, from Obama’s perspective the silver lining is that at least he now has a bubble on a par with his DEM predecessors.
Betting market: Obama $1.54, McCain $2.98 (y’day $1.61, $2.76)
“The Handicappers” - Obama’s Win Percentage
Betfair ($1.54 adjusted to 100% price): 65.78% (y’day 63.03%)
538 Electoral Predictions: 68.50% (y’day 64.90%)
Rasmussen Balance of Power Calculator: 61.90% (y’day 61.10%)
ChimbaChumba says: McCain has got the blows in the betting market, out to a price we last saw 16 days ago. Is it because punters have panicked re Obama poll-convention-bubble? Or has the market been spooked by Sarah Palin (and Bristol)?
ChimbaChumba’s Daily “PollofPollAverages” in key battleground states, and the Electoral College vote tracker
The first poll on this blog measures the average of national polls. In this section we keep a daily watch on state polls in Ohio, Colorado and Virginia, three key battleground states. In this section we also include a daily update of the Electoral College vote count from all states, awarding the electoral votes for each state based on today’s poll average for each specific state (i.e. disregarding the national polls).
Colorado - Obama +1.43% (y’day +1.23)
Ohioooo - Obama + 0.60% (y’day +0.26%)
Virginia - Obama +1.00% (y’day +0.73%)
ChimbaChumba says - This is where we realise there is currently no form-guide being published for this race. Obama still holds a small lead, slightly increased, in our 3 battleground watch states. Whereas the national polls give Obama a rocket. Readers at this site realise that, if the election is close, national polls are irrelevant, what matters is the outcome in 3-4-5 swing states. OK - so what do we have - in the above 3 states, there has been no new polls for bloody ages! We are in the dark! So we have dual problem of interpreting national polls containing convention-bubble, and a state polls vacuum! If you have balls of steel then back McCain at $2.98, and pray Obama’s poll numbers are a convention bubble, and that Sarah Palin has not damaged McCain.
ChimbaChumba’s Electoral College Vote Tracker
Obama: 260 EC votes + New Hampshire(4) + Colorado(9) + Ohio(20) + Virginia(13) = 306 EC votes (+20)no change)
McCain: 227 EC votes + Nevada(5) = 232 EC votes (-20)
