PollingThePollsters.com

2008 Presidential Polls & Betting Markets

“Poll pingpong” or a fair dinkum lead?

1. McCain took the poll lead convincingly post-Convention/Palin (regardless of whether Dick is right as to why that happened i.e. Dick says the DEMs handled the Palin factor badly) there is no denying it did happen i.e. McCain grabbed a solid poll lead for about 10 days and the DEM’s looked a bit rattled.
2. Obama has now grabbed back a very narrow poll lead because, in Dick’s mind and in Gallup’s mind, “its the economy stupid”.
3. But if you read Gallup’s analysis from about 5-6 days ago you might interpret this shift back to Obama differently. Gallup said then (my paraphrasing) “this is a close race where, based on precedent close races, the poll lead will trade back and forth in the period 20-60 days out from election”.
4. ChimbaChumba conclusion:  Dick and “Gallup today” might be wrong to conclude its the “economy stupid” that restored Obama’s poll numbers (bear in mind oil prices are dropping as well, which might help ease the pain taking some heat off McCain?).
5. It might be the current Obama poll lead is nothing more than the “Gallup close-race pingpong” - the case made by Gallup 5-6 days ago. 
6. Therefore, ChimbaChumba says there is a big chance the betting market is wrong to have pushed McCain back out the gate from $2.20 3 days ago, to $2.58 today. This market move is only sound if you buy the assumption Obama’s poll lead will be maintained or increased due to the financial firestorm in USA last week, added to the “economy stupid” macro conditions that should favour a DEM candidate in 2008.
7. ChimbaChumba says pundits and punters alike should not be distracted by a few minor poll flucs, coinciding with the Wall Street shakeout last week, and pundits and punters should not jump to premature conclusions. In 2 weeks Wall Street may be worse, but will that lead to the USA embracing Obama as the saviour on  4 November (45 days to go…..).
8. ChimbaChumba says that as at today the horses are turning into the home straight, and cool heads can see it is hard to sort out who is favourite. Is the horse one length behind out of petrol, or just timing his run? Is the horse in front leading because he is a better horse? The truth is we will not get a clear indication until about the 200 metre mark i.e. on 28-29 September, 2-3 days after  the 1st Presidential Debate. 26 September 2008 is the 1st CPD sanctioned Presidential debate at Uni of Mississippi on Foreign Policy & National Security. In a close race debates matter - the fairy floss prior to then is not all that important. 
9. The sum of all the evidence available to the punters in the grandstand as the horses turn into the home straight tells us this is a very competitive race, and as such the odds should still be close to a coin-toss. Obama’s brief surge in the national polls is not important unless he holds that lead for a longer period, or adds to that lead. A 5 point lead on Gallup can disappear without anything significant happeneing in the next 9 days. If Obama has a 5 point lead still on 26 September, McCain could be in front 3 days later depending on what happens in the debate.
10. So bet on the fact that Gallup was right 4-5 days ago (“Gallup close-race pingpong”) and back McCain at $2.58 today. Then pray for poll pingpong, and if MCcain’s price gets back near $2.20, lock in an arbitrage profit by betting Obama.
11. Is Bradley running? Is it a 3 horse race? I would welcome comments from readers more intelligent than the writer, but I cannot help but think an added reason to back McCain at $2.58 is the possibility the Bradley factor is not a myth. Can we be sure if Obama is +5% in the polls today that he actually has a poll lead at all?  It cannot be ruled out imo that McCain is ahead in the polls as at this moment. We will not know if Bradley was in the race or not until after 4 November 2008.

What a difference a day makes?

sigh - disregard what we said in the post below about 2 hours ago.

The new Gallup number is released, and lo and behold, Obama is back in front in the polls. Was the drift in McCain’s price based on insider trading out of Gallup?

Gallup says - “fromThe Sept. 14-16 Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows Barack Obama with 47% support among registered voters, and John McCain with 45%; although not a statistically significant lead for Obama, this marks the first time since the week of the Republican National Convention that McCain has not held at least a slight edge”.

Gallup gold standard says McCain out to juicy odds. Arbitrage or gamble to the wire?

ChimbaChumba says - Once again, apologies to the millions of readers who rely on this site for their polling and betting analysis. ChimbaChumba has been temporarily inconvenienced by the IRS, normal service shall be resumed shortly. I couldn’t stay silent though when, after a few days out of action, I checked Betfair and our chosen pollsters.

Betfair: McCain $2.40, Obama $1.74

ChimbaChumba noticed a few days earlier McCain touched $2.20, and some smarties I canvassed at that time began to muse McCain might even be favourite (even if only temporarily) in next 1-2 weeks.

So why the drift to $2.40?   First, ChimbaChumba reads the formguide -

• RealClear Politics - McCain +0.8, winning in Ohio
• CNN - deadheat
• Pollster - McCain +1.8
• 538 Electoral - McCain ahead there too, and winning Colorado, Ohio and deadheat Virginia.
• Gallup - McCain +1

Hmm, says ChimbaChumba - what am I missing? McCain $2.40 doesn’t correlate with those bare numbers.

OK - lets scratch a bit deeper. I only have time to read the gold standard Gallup, and it just confirms my initial impression that the betting market is currently just wrong by a big amount given election day draws closer.

If you donkeys bother to read the cut’n'paste below of two quotations from Gallup in todays analysis, even a donkey will divine that Gallup is saying they believe the race is currently even, with scope for McCain to be favourite if he merely holds his current poll lead for maybe 5-8 days longer,  and/or it is highly likely the poll lead bounces back and forth (providing arbitrage opportunities).

SO ITS OBVIOUS - BACK MCCAIN AT $2.40. THE ONLY DECIsION AFTER GETTING SET IS WHETHER TO ARBITRAGE AT $1.80-$2.00 IF MCCAIN TIGHTENS, OR LET IT GO TO THE WIRE. OR SUE CHIMBACHUMBA IF OBAMA GETS ON A NEW WAVE. 

Below copy from Gallup is just some extracts, the 2008 part analysing how history fits to 2008 polls. The 2nd part under my manufactured heading “Likely ping-pong of lead given is close” explains why it is also likely to stay closeish with lead changing hands given race is currently close at this stage of the campaign.

per Gallup: It’s still too early to estimate election probabilities, but if McCain retains an advantage in the weeks after the conventions ended, history says that he has a better than even chance of winning the election.

2008?

The results from the previous elections reviewed here were all based on Gallup’s first poll conducted after Labor Day. In all of these instances, both political party conventions were completed before Labor Day, and in some instances, weeks before Labor Day. For example, the last of the two conventions in 2000 was completed on Aug. 17, more than two weeks before Labor Day that year; in 1948, the last of the two conventions was completed in mid-July.

Labor Day this year was Sept. 1, with the Democratic convention taking place immediately before then (Aug. 25-28) and the Republican convention actually taking place on Labor Day and the three days that followed. Thus, it is obviously not appropriate to use Labor Day polling this year to compare to these historical examples. Gallup Poll Daily tracking in fact has shown much movement in the race in the days since Labor Day, with Obama having as much as an 8-point lead in a three-day period that included Labor Day, and McCain as much as a 5-point lead after his convention. As of Sept. 13-15, the race is at a statistical tie: McCain 47%, Obama 46%.

Likely ping-pong of lead given is close

The historical record reviewed here certifies that a change in the gap of up to 6 or 7 points would not be unusual between Labor Day and Election Day. This year, the data have already shown a change in the gap of 13 points from the high-water Obama gap to the high-water McCain gap since Labor Day. The unusual timing of the conventions, both of which fell close to Labor Day, makes it difficult to project probabilities of victory for one candidate or the other based on historical references to the calendar. More generally, it may be useful to refer back to Gallup’s previous analysis showing that, historically, competitive campaigns in which one candidate did not pull to a clear post-conventions lead remained close (with the lead switching back and forth) right through to the election.

Punters and polls in love with Sarah

ChimbaChumba’s PollofPollAverages

Apologies to the millions of readers who rely on this site for their polling and betting analysis. ChimbaChumba has been temporarily inconvenienced by the IRS, normal service shall be resumed shortly.

But I felt obliged to lodge a brief update re the betting market, and a few “I told you so’s” to all those Palin doubters.

Betfair odds: Obama $1.87, McCain (Sarah really) $2.20

ChimbaChumba says: if you backed McCain at $2.80 - $3.50, you might be tempted to hedge now at $2.20 (lock in a profit). But I reckon McCain will hit even money ($2.00) at some stage in the next 2 weeks, so I recommend holding off hedging for now - wait for an even better price on Obama. If McCain does hit $2.00? Well, my head says lay off, lock in the profit, but my gut says let it ride. My gut says Bill Clinton was right (Obama is a bad horse), but then my head says McCain is not Sarah Palin. McCain looks a bit wooden/dull to me - given the circumstances should favour the DEMs in the 2008 race, it might be silly to sniff at a chance to back Obama at evens ($2.00) and lock in that profit.

“We told you so….you read it here first”.   

Far be it for pollingthepollsters to be smug, but on our August 29 “Newsflash” written as Sarah Palin delivered her 1st speeach, we noted McCain was backed from $2.80 to $2.56 and said -

“My more sober partner will probably slap me for this, but as I watch Palin’s speech I think its all over. Palin is superb, and adds reality to McCain’s rhetoric. She is a plain talker and, whilst in the Alaska backwater admittedly, she actually delivered what McCain prattles on about, “change in Washington, fighting vested interests” etc. She was elected Governor ……..”

Now at the time not much credit was due to ChimbaChumba’s assessment of Palin’s impact on the race, because it was ChimbaChumba’s buddy acting on advice that was shifting the betting market i.e. it was one person that shifted the Betfair market from McCain $2.80 to McCain $2.56.

However today pollingthepollsters feels entitled to say “We told you so, you read it here first….”.

And on our 31 August post, by which time the “realists” had pushed McCain’s price back out to $2.74, we said -

“Lets take a look a look at the reaction in the press to the Sarah Palin, and try and get a handle on whether it really should effect the odds or is irrelevant. Traditionally VEEPs don’t really count much, but there is some arguing it is different in 2008 because of the factors specific to this race.

Let me first declare my bias - I think Palin is fabulous, and from the little I have seen and read she appears a unique politician - natural warmth, no bullshit, tough and dynamic. And whilst inexperience might undo her, I think its a bold and a good gamble by McCain that maximises his chance to win. McCain was coming from behind in a year that heavily favours the Democrats - his other VEEP options were dodgy or stale, and would not have added anything to his winning chance. Sarah Palin might prove to be the same, or even worse - but at least McCain has rolled the dice, rather than remaining frozen in the spotlight.

What gells with my first impression of Palin is what her 2 opponents who ran against Palin for governor in 2006, said . “Tony and I looked at each other and it was, like, this isn’t about policy or Alaska issues, this is about people’s most basic instincts: ‘I like you (Palin), and you make me feel good.”

Now, if she looks stupid in the debates, then forget it. But what I saw was a natural politician that can connect with people (the new Bill Clinton?). These types are rare, and maybe I will be made look foolish with this appraisal. I see her as a “real and genuine person”, not a politician. And tough to boot, and some concrete achievements notwithstanding a very short resume. Her Alaska record connects with McCain’s anti-Washington platform - and adds reality to the rhetoric.

What I think the Palin-critics overlook is that she is not on the ticket to win feminists or political activists on the left. She is on the ticket to shore up the right, plus hopefully grab 2% in the “middle” or from “anywhere”. The 2% (if they exist), might be Ohio mums in the supermarket, or closet racists who now have an excuse to vote GOP (choosing the “female historic opportunity”, rather than the “African-American historic opportunity”. And from the little polling we have seen it indicates Sarah is more popular with men than women - perhaps that should be no surprise! (a) she looks pretty damn good! (b) and maybe she just impressed blokes on her merits i.e. the dynamic no-nonsense image might go down well with blokes?

.

Enough of my jaundiced comments - below is a snapshot of the different views in today’s press - you make up your own mind what the post-Palin odds should be”.

Tipping point in betting market??

ChimbaChumba “PollOfPollAverages” (national polls)

We create our own average from 5 pollsters that themselves do a form of “poll-averaging”. Hopefully we smooth out the bumps or discrepancies from the different methodologies, thereby creating a more reliable number as a “form-guide” for betting on the 2008 USA Presidential election. Our average is named the “ChimbaChumbaAverage“.

 Pollster     48.3 – 42.7  =  Obama +5.6%  (y’day +5.2)

 CNN         47.0 – 43.0  =  Obama + 4.0%  (no change)

 RCP          46.6 – 44.2  =  Obama + 2.4%  (y’day +2.6)

 538 EP      50.1 – 47.2  =  Obama + 2.9% (no change)

 Gallup      47.0 – 45.0  =  Obama +2.0%  (y’day +4.0)

ChimbaChumbaAverage:  Obama +3.4%  (y’day +4.0)

ChimbaChumba says: if Gallup is on the money Obama’s lead will keep narrowing. Bet McCain - at worst lock in small loss next 10 days, at best big profit. I say this because I think the polls and the betting market are about to enter into a new “alignment”. With Conventions over, VEEPs appointed and the real war underway, if the polls get back to neck-and-neck (which they look like doing), there is no way in ChimbaChumba’s opinion that the betting market can remain framed on an underlying assumption Obama has a big edge - that assumption was based on factors that are either now looking redundant, or have been swept aside by the McCain-Palin ticket that is NOT looking like Bush-Cheney. 

Betting market: Obama $1.62, McCain $2.68 (3 days ago $1.62, $2.70)

“The Handicappers” - Obama’s Win Percentage
Betfair ($1.62 adjusted to 100% price):         62.2%   (y’day 62.4%)
538 Electoral Predictions:                               71.3%   (y’day 70.3%)
Rasmussen Balance of Power Calculator:   57.3%  (y’day 58.3)

Battleground states - Ohio, Virginia and Colorado