PollingThePollsters.com

Election day betting

ChimbaChumba — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:06:58 +0000

ChimbaChumba “PollOfPollAverages” (national polls)

We create our own average from 5 pollsters that themselves do a form of “poll-averaging”. Hopefully we smooth out the bumps or discrepancies from the different methodologies, thereby creating a more reliable number as a “form-guide” for betting on the 2008 USA Presidential election. Our average is named the “ChimbaChumba Average”.

Pollster Obama +7.6%

CNN Obama + 8.0%

RCP Obama + 7.6%

538 EP Obama + 6.1%

Gallup Obama +8.0%

“ChimbaChumba Average” +7.46%

Election day betting flucs

Betfair (16.00 ET time) - Obama $1.05, McCain $18.00

Betfair (16.25 ET time) - Obama $1.06, McCain $17.50

Betfair (16.38 ET time) - Obama $1.09, McCain $12.50

Betfair (16.50 ET time) - Obama $1.06, McCain $16.00

Betfair (17.20 ET time) - Obama $1.05, McCain $19.00

McCain drifts to $8.00, but a glimmer of hope from Gallup and the 3rd debate

ChimbaChumba — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 20:10:19 +0000

Betfair - McCain $8.00, Obama $1.15

Gallup - Obama + 6% (yesterday +7%, 2 days ago +9%)

ChimbaChumba says - With the debate yet to be reflected in the poll numbers, Obama’s lead is still large but the gap has closed. Disregarding the 3rd and final debate, I believe the poll gap would have narrowed further sometime between now and election day. Obama did not get a 9 point lead on ability, he got it because of the economic tsunami. I suspect that Obama cannot hold all those 9 points (or even the 6 points from today), once the initial shock and awe from the financial crisis wears off.

So where are we? The poll gap will close at some point, even if Obama goes on to win the election. $8.00 for McCain is money in the bank. Lay off when the poll gap closes to 2-3 points, and McCain’s odds shrink to $3.50.

Re the race and the 3rd debate, read Dick Morris from today. In ChimbaChumba’s opinion, Joe the plumber was a bit dull, but I give McCain a big tick for the line “you needed to run 4 years ago if you wanted to run against George Bush”.

Dick Morris says -

The short term impact of the third debate will be to help Barack Obama. But the long term implications may give John McCain a needed boost. Obama looked good, but McCain opened the tax-and-spend issue in a way that might prevail.

Obama seemed to rise above the charges and show his reasonableness and his ability to inspire confidence. McCain was like a trial lawyer, hammering out his points, but Obama came across with dignity.

McCain has now established the tax issue in a way he has not been able to do so far in the contest. Now he can widen the gap between the campaigns on this key issue. If the Republicans concentrate their campaign on the key issue of taxes and abandon the other lines of attack, they can use the lines developed in this debate to do better and better as Election Day nears.

There was no knockout in this debate. Obama emerged with class and charisma from a slugfest. He seemed to be the kind of man we want as president. But McCain was able to set up the tax issue in a way that could eventually close the gap.

Remember 1992. Clinton had a big lead over George Bush Sr. with three weeks to go. But then Bush and Quayle hammered him over the tax issue and his big spending plans. Day after day, the Republicans gained, and Clinton fell back. By the Thursday before the Tuesday election, Bush had gained the lead. Ultimately Clinton was saved at the bell by the announcement by Special Prosecutor Lawrence Walsh that he was going to indict Bush’s Defense Secretary Cap Weinberger. That restored the Clinton lead and delivered the victory to him.

McCain is not as good on television as Obama is. So the immediate impact of the debate was to help Obama.

But the tax-and-spend issue is the one that Republicans want at the center of the race, and McCain put it there.

So this may turn out to have been a turning point for McCain, after all.

McCain $6.00 arbitrage opportunity; 3rd and final debate the catalyst?

ChimbaChumba — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 09:57:39 +0000

Betfair odds: McCain $6.00, Obama $1.21ChimbaChumba says - read what Gallup says below. Read earlier blogs. The poll gap will close at some stage, and maybe Gallup is right to suggest the 3rd and final debate tomorrow might be the catalyst. If that happens, then you unload the whole bet on Obama and bank the profit. It might be you bet today, and get to unload and arbitrage within 3-7 days.

per Wikipedia: October 15 2008: The Third and final CPD Presidential Debate will be hosted in Hempstead, New York at Hofstra University, and will focus on Domestic and Economic Policy. Like the first CPD debate, this debate will be formatted into nine nine-minute segments, with the moderator (Bob Schieffer) introducing the topics.

from Gallup today: “Recent Gallup polling suggests that while Barack Obama leads John McCain on the ballot and has clear strengths on key dimensions such as the economy, McCain himself is not without his own strengths, which he could in theory build on in the third and final presidential debate“.

Dow crash creates opportunity to bet McCain @ $6.00

ChimbaChumba — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 22:08:03 +0000

We only need watch Gallup whilst Obama holds a commanding lead. So commanding, McCain is now $6.00 at Betfair.

If we cut’n'paste from 2 sources today we read as follows -

“The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its most volatile day ever Friday, oscillating more than one thousand points before ending up 128 points down, capping the worst week in the Dow’s 112-year history. The index lost 18.2 percent of its value between the opening bell Monday and closing bell Friday. Amid the panic” , “Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 8-10 finds Barack Obama leading John McCain, 51% to 42%. This is the sixth straight day Obama has held a sizeable — roughly 10-point — lead in the race”.

So with 24 days to election day, the most favourable conditions for a DEM since 1976, and the added windfall of the worst week for the Dow in 112 years, and Obama is only +9 ponts on Gallup? Will the voters still overwhelmingly see Obama as the saviour once the financial dust settles? Is Obama promising more or less dodgy loans from Fannie and Freddie in 2009?

At 538 Electoral Projections Obama leads Florida (+4.5), Nevada (+3.5), Ohio (+3.1), Colorado (+6.7) and Virginia (+6.4). Is it implausible for McCain to retake the poll lead in those States in next 20 days? If he does, obviously the gap closes in New Mexico and New Hampshire at same time. If that happens what will be the odds? Not $6.00 anyway…..

ChimbaChumba says - Take the $6.00 for McCain today, and lay off the whole bet when the poll gap closes about 5 days from the election. Remember, you are not betting on McCain winning, just that his poll numbers and his odds will tighten sometime between now and 4 November 2008.

Have a look at this article highlighting the vagaries of polling data and election day reality. http://www.overdetermined.net/site/content/bradley-reverse-bradley-and-double-secret-un-bradley

Also read below what Dick Morris says today (ex-Clinton adviser, but a GOP baracker):

from Dick Morris: For McCain to win this election (which he still can) the furor over the stock market will have to calm down so that popular attention can focus on Barack Obama. For all of the deluge of media that has engulfed the American people, they can only keep one subject on their mind. All media has only one focus at a time. And, if you are in the spotlight, you are almost certain to self-destruct. Follow this election cycle. Between the summer of 2007 and the end of February of 2008, all focus was on Hillary Clinton’s ups and downs. And Obama defeated her decisively. Then in March and April of 2008, Obama was in the focus and Rev Wright and the surrounding controversy propelled Hillary to victory. Then during the summer of 2008, all eyes were on Obama and he gained. In September, McCain was on the griddle. At first his selection of Sarah Palin let him move ahead. But then his “suspension” of his campaign and subsequent complicity in the bailout package cost him his lead and moved Obama to an advantage just short of double digits.

Now the attention should logically shift to Obama. He is way ahead and McCain is nowhere to be seen. Few give McCain any chance and the debate is over whether the race is over already. This is, of course, the ideal environment for a McCain surge. All attention would normally focus on the Democrat. But it isn’t. Every American checks the market before they check the polls. The ongoing anxiety over the stock market is not only giving more and more people reason to hate the Republicans of Wall Street and their allies in Washington, but it is keeping us from focusing on Obama.

If ever the market stabilizes, Americans will be fascinated by the Ayers-Obama ties and the relationship between Farrakhan and the Democratic nominee. The increasing evidence that ACORN is committing voter fraud, registering people over and over again in anticipation of stuffing the ballot box on election day. As ACORN gets raided by the FBI, it will hurt Obama. He was general counsel to its Illinois affiliate and Obama channeled millions to the radical group when he got control over the money William Ayers got from the Annenberg Foundation.

All of these ties are damning for Obama and will reinforce the doubts that Rev. Wright first put in our minds. They will lead people to question Obama’s values and his fitness for the presidency. A man whose spiritual advisor is Rev Wright, whose financial backer is Rezco, and whose first major employer was William Ayers might not be a good choice for president. But for these associations to loom large enough in our consciousness to impact our vote, the market has to settle down so we can hear the campaign over its din.

McCain down and out? try some comedy instead

ChimbaChumba — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 09:56:13 +0000

ChimbaChumba has egg on face at the moment. He was feeling pretty good when McCain shortened to $2.20 in early September post-Palin. But what a difference a month makes in politics.

McCain is now $5.30, and Obama leads by 11% from the “gold standard” Gallup.

Gallup also says today “While 6% of voters say they are less likely to vote for Barack Obama because of his race, 9% say they are more likely to vote for him, making the impact of his race a neutral to slightly positive factor when all voters’ self-reported attitudes are taken into account”. ChimbaChumba does not know whether this is BS, but if its true, and there is no Bradley effect, in times of stress comedy is the last refuge of the scoundrel. Click on this.

http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/187.html

Is it possible the the economic and financial mess is just shortb term static screwing up the polls? Will it wash out in few weeks and the poll gap narrow? When the voters remember it was the DEMs that caused the Fannie/Freddie imbroglio? Regardless, have they truly embraced Obama as the saviour in troubled times? Is this a betting opportunity, or is McCain actually dead in the water? He sorta looks pretty damn dead to me but….

Perhaps this is the golden moment in the campaign where the betting market (the punters) have made the mistake of listening to the pundits and the betting market is based on the same dumbness as the pundit market? Obviously it gets hard to remain a bull when 99% of your fellow bulls abandon ship (and 100% of the bears move en-masse to the other side of the ship).

But the smart punter (the sole bull still roaming the paddock hunting for a heifer in heat) knows that sometimes that is the time when the betting opportunity may be the juiciest. Bear in mind the sole bull also knows McCain might be shooting blanks, Viagra or not. But you do not lose much when the odds are $5.30.

ChimbaChumba says: polish the balls of steel needed to ante up on McCain when everyone has written him off. Bank on the poll race tightening, and take the profit when/if the Gallup margin reduces. Remember, Obama is now the established front-runner, and may cop a bit more heat from the press. CNN may sound a little like FOX for the next few weeks. Dick Morris argues that when Obama became the established front-runner vs Hillary, the press fell out of love with Obama to some degree, and that is when Hillary got back in the race and beat Obama in what we now know were the dead-rubber primaries.

Will history repeat? Remember, if Obama’s Gallup lead is sliced to 2- 3 - 4 points, lay off and take the profit. Don’t risk money on McCain actually making it to the Whitehouse. Just bet on the fact that the pundits will get tougher on Obma, as will the GOP get more desperate and strident, and there might be a brief period where the combined effect closes the poll gap and the odds tighten accordingly.

On the other hand, read this article “Dem strategists see landslide in the making” and make up your own mind. The phrase “economic tsunami” is pretty spooky, not to mention the rest.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14413.html

“Poll pingpong” or a fair dinkum lead?

ChimbaChumba — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 06:23:11 +0000

ChimbaChumba “PollOfPollAverages” (national polls)

Pollster Obama +3.0%

CNN Obama + 4.0%

RCP Obama + 1.9%

538 EP Obama + 1.8%

Gallup Obama +5.0%

“ChimbaChumba Average” +3.5%

Betfair market: Obama $1.67, McCain $2.58

ChimbaChumba says: Dick Morris’ e-mail newsletter provides a good short summary re the state of play the last few weeks. Ignore the heading, Dick takes off his GOP hat in the final sentence quoted below.

“Big Shift to McCain” (by Dick Morris)

There was a gigantic turn toward John McCain in the two weeks immediately after the GOP convention. In large part this was due to the Sarah Palin nomination, and the tremendous miscalculation by the Democrats in attacking Palin, particularly on issues important to women, such as her caring for her children. That backfired massively. The anti-Palin attack by the Democrats showed a cultural disconnect with America that is remarkable.

Now, the contest is transitioning from post-convention issues to a race dominated by the economy. The key to that for Barack Obama is to stress the liability of the incumbent party for the mess that we’re in economically. For McCain, it will be stressing that Obama’s tax proposals will make the situation worse.

There has been a huge change among unmarried women, particularly, due in part to the hostile reaction of the Democrats to Palin. There are indications that the momentum of the race may be reversing itself again, however, as a result of the economy. (my underline)

ChimbaChumba says: To me this is a pretty good summary of the last fortnight, and despite teh usual daggers thrown by Dick at Obama, in his last sentence he acknowledges the ground may be shifting to Obama in the last few days.

Where I disagree with Dick Morris is his conclusion as to why the poll numbers have shifted back to Obama. I think it is premature to form a conclusion as to why Obama regained the poll lead, and ChimbaChumba thinks this has created a value betting opportunity.

Gallup today says: “Presidential preferences continue to shift toward Barack Obama in the midst of an unsettling Wall Street crisis that is shining a different spotlight on the presidential candidates. Voters now prefer Obama over John McCain by 49% to 44%“.

Let me set it out my case in my usual tedious manner -

McCain took the poll lead convincingly post-Convention/Palin (regardless of whether Dick is right as to why that happened i.e. Dick says the DEMs handled the Palin factor badly) there is no denying it did happen i.e. McCain grabbed a solid poll lead for about 10 days and the DEM’s looked a bit rattled.
Obama has now grabbed back a very narrow poll lead because, in Dick’s mind and in Gallup’s mind, “its the economy stupid”.
But if you read Gallup’s analysis from about 5-6 days ago you might interpret this shift back to Obama differently. Gallup said then (my paraphrasing) “this is a close race where, based on precedent close races, the poll lead will trade back and forth in the period 20-60 days out from election”.
ChimbaChumba conclusion: Dick and “Gallup today” might be wrong to conclude its the “economy stupid” that restored Obama’s poll numbers (bear in mind oil prices are dropping as well, which might help ease the pain taking some heat off McCain?).
It might be the current Obama poll lead is nothing more than the “Gallup close-race pingpong” - the case made by Gallup 5-6 days ago.
Therefore, ChimbaChumba says there is a big chance the betting market is wrong to have pushed McCain back out the gate from $2.20 3 days ago, to $2.58 today. This market move is only sound if you buy the assumption Obama’s poll lead will be maintained or increased due to the financial firestorm in USA last week, added to the “economy stupid” macro conditions that should favour a DEM candidate in 2008.
ChimbaChumba says pundits and punters alike should not be distracted by a few minor poll flucs, coinciding with the Wall Street shakeout last week, and pundits and punters should not jump to premature conclusions. In 2 weeks Wall Street may be worse, but will that lead to the USA embracing Obama as the saviour on 4 November (45 days to go…..).
ChimbaChumba says that as at today the horses are turning into the home straight, and cool heads can see it is hard to sort out who is favourite. Is the horse one length behind out of petrol, or just timing his run? Is the horse in front leading because he is a better horse? The truth is we will not get a clear indication until about the 200 metre mark i.e. on 28-29 September, 2-3 days after the 1st Presidential Debate. 26 September 2008 is the 1st CPD sanctioned Presidential debate at Uni of Mississippi on Foreign Policy & National Security. In a close race debates matter - the fairy floss prior to then is not all that important.
The sum of all the evidence available to the punters in the grandstand as the horses turn into the home straight tells us this is a very competitive race, and as such the odds should still be close to a coin-toss. Obama’s brief surge in the national polls is not important unless he holds that lead for a longer period, or adds to that lead. A 5 point lead on Gallup can disappear without anything significant happeneing in the next 9 days. If Obama has a 5 point lead still on 26 September, McCain could be in front 3 days later depending on what happens in the debate.
So bet on the fact that Gallup was right 4-5 days ago (“Gallup close-race pingpong”) and back McCain at $2.58 today. Then pray for poll pingpong, and if MCcain’s price gets back near $2.20, lock in an arbitrage profit by betting Obama.
Is Bradley running? Is it a 3 horse race? I would welcome comments from readers more intelligent than the writer, but I cannot help but think an added reason to back McCain at $2.58 is the possibility the Bradley factor is not a myth. Can we be sure if Obama is +5% in the polls today that he actually has a poll lead at all? It cannot be ruled out imo that McCain is ahead in the polls as at this moment. We will not know if Bradley was in the race or not until after 4 November 2008.

What a difference a day makes?

ChimbaChumba — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 17:28:00 +0000

sigh - disregard what we said in the post below about 2 hours ago.

The new Gallup number is released, and lo and behold, Obama is back in front in the polls. Was the drift in McCain’s price based on insider trading out of Gallup?

Gallup says - “fromThe Sept. 14-16 Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows Barack Obama with 47% support among registered voters, and John McCain with 45%; although not a statistically significant lead for Obama, this marks the first time since the week of the Republican National Convention that McCain has not held at least a slight edge”.

Gallup gold standard says McCain out to juicy odds. Arbitrage or gamble to the wire?

ChimbaChumba — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 14:02:20 +0000

ChimbaChumba says - Once again, apologies to the millions of readers who rely on this site for their polling and betting analysis. ChimbaChumba has been temporarily inconvenienced by the IRS, normal service shall be resumed shortly. I couldn’t stay silent though when, after a few days out of action, I checked Betfair and our chosen pollsters.

Betfair: McCain $2.40, Obama $1.74

ChimbaChumba noticed a few days earlier McCain touched $2.20, and some smarties I canvassed at that time began to muse McCain might even be favourite (even if only temporarily) in next 1-2 weeks.

So why the drift to $2.40? First, ChimbaChumba reads the formguide -

RealClear Politics - McCain +0.8, winning in Ohio
CNN - deadheat
Pollster - McCain +1.8
538 Electoral - McCain ahead there too, and winning Colorado, Ohio and deadheat Virginia.
Gallup - McCain +1

Hmm, says ChimbaChumba - what am I missing? McCain $2.40 doesn’t correlate with those bare numbers.

OK - lets scratch a bit deeper. I only have time to read the gold standard Gallup, and it just confirms my initial impression that the betting market is currently just wrong by a big amount given election day draws closer.

If you donkeys bother to read the cut’n'paste below of two quotations from Gallup in todays analysis, even a donkey will divine that Gallup is saying they believe the race is currently even, with scope for McCain to be favourite if he merely holds his current poll lead for maybe 5-8 days longer, and/or it is highly likely the poll lead bounces back and forth (providing arbitrage opportunities).

SO ITS OBVIOUS - BACK MCCAIN AT $2.40. THE ONLY DECIsION AFTER GETTING SET IS WHETHER TO ARBITRAGE AT $1.80-$2.00 IF MCCAIN TIGHTENS, OR LET IT GO TO THE WIRE. OR SUE CHIMBACHUMBA IF OBAMA GETS ON A NEW WAVE.

Below copy from Gallup is just some extracts, the 2008 part analysing how history fits to 2008 polls. The 2nd part under my manufactured heading “Likely ping-pong of lead given is close” explains why it is also likely to stay closeish with lead changing hands given race is currently close at this stage of the campaign.

per Gallup: It’s still too early to estimate election probabilities, but if McCain retains an advantage in the weeks after the conventions ended, history says that he has a better than even chance of winning the election.

2008?

The results from the previous elections reviewed here were all based on Gallup’s first poll conducted after Labor Day. In all of these instances, both political party conventions were completed before Labor Day, and in some instances, weeks before Labor Day. For example, the last of the two conventions in 2000 was completed on Aug. 17, more than two weeks before Labor Day that year; in 1948, the last of the two conventions was completed in mid-July.

Labor Day this year was Sept. 1, with the Democratic convention taking place immediately before then (Aug. 25-28) and the Republican convention actually taking place on Labor Day and the three days that followed. Thus, it is obviously not appropriate to use Labor Day polling this year to compare to these historical examples. Gallup Poll Daily tracking in fact has shown much movement in the race in the days since Labor Day, with Obama having as much as an 8-point lead in a three-day period that included Labor Day, and McCain as much as a 5-point lead after his convention. As of Sept. 13-15, the race is at a statistical tie: McCain 47%, Obama 46%.

Likely ping-pong of lead given is close

The historical record reviewed here certifies that a change in the gap of up to 6 or 7 points would not be unusual between Labor Day and Election Day. This year, the data have already shown a change in the gap of 13 points from the high-water Obama gap to the high-water McCain gap since Labor Day. The unusual timing of the conventions, both of which fell close to Labor Day, makes it difficult to project probabilities of victory for one candidate or the other based on historical references to the calendar. More generally, it may be useful to refer back to Gallup’s previous analysis showing that, historically, competitive campaigns in which one candidate did not pull to a clear post-conventions lead remained close (with the lead switching back and forth) right through to the election.

Punters and polls in love with Sarah

ChimbaChumba — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 23:49:19 +0000

ChimbaChumba’s PollofPollAverages

Apologies to the millions of readers who rely on this site for their polling and betting analysis. ChimbaChumba has been temporarily inconvenienced by the IRS, normal service shall be resumed shortly.

But I felt obliged to lodge a brief update re the betting market, and a few “I told you so’s” to all those Palin doubters.

Betfair odds: Obama $1.87, McCain (Sarah really) $2.20

ChimbaChumba says: if you backed McCain at $2.80 - $3.50, you might be tempted to hedge now at $2.20 (lock in a profit). But I reckon McCain will hit even money ($2.00) at some stage in the next 2 weeks, so I recommend holding off hedging for now - wait for an even better price on Obama. If McCain does hit $2.00? Well, my head says lay off, lock in the profit, but my gut says let it ride. My gut says Bill Clinton was right (Obama is a bad horse), but then my head says McCain is not Sarah Palin. McCain looks a bit wooden/dull to me - given the circumstances should favour the DEMs in the 2008 race, it might be silly to sniff at a chance to back Obama at evens ($2.00) and lock in that profit.

“We told you so….you read it here first”.

Far be it for pollingthepollsters to be smug, but on our August 29 “Newsflash” written as Sarah Palin delivered her 1st speeach, we noted McCain was backed from $2.80 to $2.56 and said -

“My more sober partner will probably slap me for this, but as I watch Palin’s speech I think its all over. Palin is superb, and adds reality to McCain’s rhetoric. She is a plain talker and, whilst in the Alaska backwater admittedly, she actually delivered what McCain prattles on about, “change in Washington, fighting vested interests” etc. She was elected Governor ……..”

Now at the time not much credit was due to ChimbaChumba’s assessment of Palin’s impact on the race, because it was ChimbaChumba’s buddy acting on advice that was shifting the betting market i.e. it was one person that shifted the Betfair market from McCain $2.80 to McCain $2.56.

However today pollingthepollsters feels entitled to say “We told you so, you read it here first….”.

And on our 31 August post, by which time the “realists” had pushed McCain’s price back out to $2.74, we said -

“Lets take a look a look at the reaction in the press to the Sarah Palin, and try and get a handle on whether it really should effect the odds or is irrelevant. Traditionally VEEPs don’t really count much, but there is some arguing it is different in 2008 because of the factors specific to this race.

Let me first declare my bias - I think Palin is fabulous, and from the little I have seen and read she appears a unique politician - natural warmth, no bullshit, tough and dynamic. And whilst inexperience might undo her, I think its a bold and a good gamble by McCain that maximises his chance to win. McCain was coming from behind in a year that heavily favours the Democrats - his other VEEP options were dodgy or stale, and would not have added anything to his winning chance. Sarah Palin might prove to be the same, or even worse - but at least McCain has rolled the dice, rather than remaining frozen in the spotlight.

What gells with my first impression of Palin is what her 2 opponents who ran against Palin for governor in 2006, said . “Tony and I looked at each other and it was, like, this isn’t about policy or Alaska issues, this is about people’s most basic instincts: ‘I like you (Palin), and you make me feel good.”

Now, if she looks stupid in the debates, then forget it. But what I saw was a natural politician that can connect with people (the new Bill Clinton?). These types are rare, and maybe I will be made look foolish with this appraisal. I see her as a “real and genuine person”, not a politician. And tough to boot, and some concrete achievements notwithstanding a very short resume. Her Alaska record connects with McCain’s anti-Washington platform - and adds reality to the rhetoric.

What I think the Palin-critics overlook is that she is not on the ticket to win feminists or political activists on the left. She is on the ticket to shore up the right, plus hopefully grab 2% in the “middle” or from “anywhere”. The 2% (if they exist), might be Ohio mums in the supermarket, or closet racists who now have an excuse to vote GOP (choosing the “female historic opportunity”, rather than the “African-American historic opportunity”. And from the little polling we have seen it indicates Sarah is more popular with men than women - perhaps that should be no surprise! (a) she looks pretty damn good! (b) and maybe she just impressed blokes on her merits i.e. the dynamic no-nonsense image might go down well with blokes?

Enough of my jaundiced comments - below is a snapshot of the different views in today’s press - you make up your own mind what the post-Palin odds should be”.

Tipping point in betting market??

ChimbaChumba — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 04:50:51 +0000

ChimbaChumba “PollOfPollAverages” (national polls)

Pollster 48.3 – 42.7 = Obama +5.6% (y’day +5.2)

CNN 47.0 – 43.0 = Obama + 4.0% (no change)

RCP 46.6 – 44.2 = Obama + 2.4% (y’day +2.6)

538 EP 50.1 – 47.2 = Obama + 2.9% (no change)

Gallup 47.0 – 45.0 = Obama +2.0% (y’day +4.0)

ChimbaChumbaAverage: Obama +3.4% (y’day +4.0)

ChimbaChumba says: if Gallup is on the money Obama’s lead will keep narrowing. Bet McCain - at worst lock in small loss next 10 days, at best big profit. I say this because I think the polls and the betting market are about to enter into a new “alignment”. With Conventions over, VEEPs appointed and the real war underway, if the polls get back to neck-and-neck (which they look like doing), there is no way in ChimbaChumba’s opinion that the betting market can remain framed on an underlying assumption Obama has a big edge - that assumption was based on factors that are either now looking redundant, or have been swept aside by the McCain-Palin ticket that is NOT looking like Bush-Cheney.

Betting market: Obama $1.62, McCain $2.68 (3 days ago $1.62, $2.70)

“The Handicappers” - Obama’s Win Percentage
Betfair ($1.62 adjusted to 100% price):         62.2%   (y’day 62.4%)
538 Electoral Predictions:                               71.3%   (y’day 70.3%)
Rasmussen Balance of Power Calculator:   57.3% (y’day 58.3)

Battleground states - Ohio, Virginia and Colorado

Ohioooo - Obama +1.1% (y’day +1.1)

Virginia - Obama +1.3% (y’day +1.2)

Colorado - Obama +1.5% (y’day +1.5)