Poll Averages
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Tuesday, November 4th, 2008ChimbaChumba “PollOfPollAverages” (national polls)
We create our own average from 5 pollsters that themselves do a form of “poll-averaging”. Hopefully we smooth out the bumps or discrepancies from the different methodologies, thereby creating a more reliable number as a “form-guide” for betting on the 2008 USA Presidential election. Our average is named the “ChimbaChumba Average”.
Pollster Obama +7.6%
CNN [...]
McCain drifts to $8.00, but a glimmer of hope from Gallup and the 3rd debate
Thursday, October 16th, 2008Betfair - McCain $8.00, Obama $1.15
Gallup - Obama + 6% (yesterday +7%, 2 days ago +9%)
ChimbaChumba says - With the debate yet to be reflected in the poll numbers, Obama’s lead is still large but the gap has closed. Disregarding the 3rd and final debate, I believe the poll gap would have narrowed further sometime between now and election [...]
McCain $6.00 arbitrage opportunity; 3rd and final debate the catalyst?
Wednesday, October 15th, 2008Betfair odds: McCain $6.00, Obama $1.21ChimbaChumba says - read what Gallup says below. Read earlier blogs. The poll gap will close at some stage, and maybe Gallup is right to suggest the 3rd and final debate tomorrow might be the catalyst. If that happens, then you unload the whole bet on Obama and bank the [...]
Dow crash creates opportunity to bet McCain @ $6.00
Saturday, October 11th, 2008We only need watch Gallup whilst Obama holds a commanding lead. So commanding, McCain is now $6.00 at Betfair.
If we cut’n’paste from 2 sources today we read as follows -
“The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its most volatile day ever Friday, oscillating more than one thousand points before ending up 128 points down, capping the [...]
McCain down and out? try some comedy instead
Thursday, October 9th, 2008ChimbaChumba has egg on face at the moment. He was feeling pretty good when McCain shortened to $2.20 in early September post-Palin. But what a difference a month makes in politics.
McCain is now $5.30, and Obama leads by 11% from the “gold standard” Gallup.
Gallup also says today “While 6% of voters say they are less [...]
