November 4, 2008

Election day betting

By ChimbaChumba

ChimbaChumba “PollOfPollAverages” (national polls)

We create our own average from 5 pollsters that themselves do a form of “poll-averaging”. Hopefully we smooth out the bumps or discrepancies from the different methodologies, thereby creating a more reliable number as a “form-guide” for betting on the 2008 USA Presidential election. Our average is named the “ChimbaChumba Average”.

Pollster     Obama   +7.6%  

CNN         Obama  + 8.0%  

RCP          Obama  + 7.6% 

538 EP      Obama  + 6.1% 

Gallup       Obama  +8.0% 

“ChimbaChumba Average”  +7.46%

 Election day betting flucs

Betfair (16.00 ET time) - Obama $1.05, McCain $18.00

Betfair (16.25 ET time) - Obama $1.06, McCain $17.50

Betfair (16.38 ET time) - Obama $1.09, McCain $12.50

Betfair (16.50 ET time) - Obama $1.06, McCain $16.00

Betfair (17.20 ET time) - Obama $1.05, McCain $19.00

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