October 16, 2008
By ChimbaChumba
Betfair - McCain $8.00, Obama $1.15
Gallup - Obama + 6% (yesterday +7%, 2 days ago +9%)
ChimbaChumba says - With the debate yet to be reflected in the poll numbers, Obama’s lead is still large but the gap has closed. Disregarding the 3rd and final debate, I believe the poll gap would have narrowed further sometime between now and election day. Obama did not get a 9 point lead on ability, he got it because of the economic tsunami. I suspect that Obama cannot hold all those 9 points (or even the 6 points from today), once the initial shock and awe from the financial crisis wears off.
So where are we? The poll gap will close at some point, even if Obama goes on to win the election. $8.00 for McCain is money in the bank. Lay off when the poll gap closes to 2-3 points, and McCain’s odds shrink to $3.50.
Re the race and the 3rd debate, read Dick Morris from today. In ChimbaChumba’s opinion, Joe the plumber was a bit dull, but I give McCain a big tick for the line “you needed to run 4 years ago if you wanted to run against George Bush”.
Dick Morris says -
The short term impact of the third debate will be to help Barack Obama. But the long term implications may give John McCain a needed boost. Obama looked good, but McCain opened the tax-and-spend issue in a way that might prevail.
Obama seemed to rise above the charges and show his reasonableness and his ability to inspire confidence. McCain was like a trial lawyer, hammering out his points, but Obama came across with dignity.
McCain has now established the tax issue in a way he has not been able to do so far in the contest. Now he can widen the gap between the campaigns on this key issue. If the Republicans concentrate their campaign on the key issue of taxes and abandon the other lines of attack, they can use the lines developed in this debate to do better and better as Election Day nears.
There was no knockout in this debate. Obama emerged with class and charisma from a slugfest. He seemed to be the kind of man we want as president. But McCain was able to set up the tax issue in a way that could eventually close the gap.
Remember 1992. Clinton had a big lead over George Bush Sr. with three weeks to go. But then Bush and Quayle hammered him over the tax issue and his big spending plans. Day after day, the Republicans gained, and Clinton fell back. By the Thursday before the Tuesday election, Bush had gained the lead. Ultimately Clinton was saved at the bell by the announcement by Special Prosecutor Lawrence Walsh that he was going to indict Bush’s Defense Secretary Cap Weinberger. That restored the Clinton lead and delivered the victory to him.
McCain is not as good on television as Obama is. So the immediate impact of the debate was to help Obama.
But the tax-and-spend issue is the one that Republicans want at the center of the race, and McCain put it there.
So this may turn out to have been a turning point for McCain, after all.
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