McCain down and out? try some comedy instead
ChimbaChumba has egg on face at the moment. He was feeling pretty good when McCain shortened to $2.20 in early September post-Palin. But what a difference a month makes in politics.
McCain is now $5.30, and Obama leads by 11% from the “gold standard” Gallup.
Gallup also says today “While 6% of voters say they are less likely to vote for Barack Obama because of his race, 9% say they are more likely to vote for him, making the impact of his race a neutral to slightly positive factor when all voters’ self-reported attitudes are taken into account”. ChimbaChumba does not know whether this is BS, but if its true, and there is no Bradley effect, in times of stress comedy is the last refuge of the scoundrel. Click on this.
http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/187.html
Is it possible the the economic and financial mess is just shortb term static screwing up the polls? Will it wash out in few weeks and the poll gap narrow? When the voters remember it was the DEMs that caused the Fannie/Freddie imbroglio? Regardless, have they truly embraced Obama as the saviour in troubled times? Is this a betting opportunity, or is McCain actually dead in the water? He sorta looks pretty damn dead to me but….
Perhaps this is the golden moment in the campaign where the betting market (the punters) have made the mistake of listening to the pundits and the betting market is based on the same dumbness as the pundit market? Obviously it gets hard to remain a bull when 99% of your fellow bulls abandon ship (and 100% of the bears move en-masse to the other side of the ship).
But the smart punter (the sole bull still roaming the paddock hunting for a heifer in heat) knows that sometimes that is the time when the betting opportunity may be the juiciest. Bear in mind the sole bull also knows McCain might be shooting blanks, Viagra or not. But you do not lose much when the odds are $5.30.
ChimbaChumba says: polish the balls of steel needed to ante up on McCain when everyone has written him off. Bank on the poll race tightening, and take the profit when/if the Gallup margin reduces. Remember, Obama is now the established front-runner, and may cop a bit more heat from the press. CNN may sound a little like FOX for the next few weeks. Dick Morris argues that when Obama became the established front-runner vs Hillary, the press fell out of love with Obama to some degree, and that is when Hillary got back in the race and beat Obama in what we now know were the dead-rubber primaries.
Will history repeat? Remember, if Obama’s Gallup lead is sliced to 2- 3 - 4 points, lay off and take the profit. Don’t risk money on McCain actually making it to the Whitehouse. Just bet on the fact that the pundits will get tougher on Obma, as will the GOP get more desperate and strident, and there might be a brief period where the combined effect closes the poll gap and the odds tighten accordingly.
On the other hand, read this article “Dem strategists see landslide in the making” and make up your own mind. The phrase “economic tsunami” is pretty spooky, not to mention the rest.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14413.html
October 27th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Well said.