Dow crash creates opportunity to bet McCain @ $6.00
We only need watch Gallup whilst Obama holds a commanding lead. So commanding, McCain is now $6.00 at Betfair.
If we cut’n'paste from 2 sources today we read as follows -
“The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its most volatile day ever Friday, oscillating more than one thousand points before ending up 128 points down, capping the worst week in the Dow’s 112-year history. The index lost 18.2 percent of its value between the opening bell Monday and closing bell Friday. Amid the panic” , “Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 8-10 finds Barack Obama leading John McCain, 51% to 42%. This is the sixth straight day Obama has held a sizeable — roughly 10-point — lead in the race”.
So with 24 days to election day, the most favourable conditions for a DEM since 1976, and the added windfall of the worst week for the Dow in 112 years, and Obama is only +9 ponts on Gallup? Will the voters still overwhelmingly see Obama as the saviour once the financial dust settles? Is Obama promising more or less dodgy loans from Fannie and Freddie in 2009?
At 538 Electoral Projections Obama leads Florida (+4.5), Nevada (+3.5), Ohio (+3.1), Colorado (+6.7) and Virginia (+6.4). Is it implausible for McCain to retake the poll lead in those States in next 20 days? If he does, obviously the gap closes in New Mexico and New Hampshire at same time. If that happens what will be the odds? Not $6.00 anyway…..
ChimbaChumba says - Take the $6.00 for McCain today, and lay off the whole bet when the poll gap closes about 5 days from the election. Remember, you are not betting on McCain winning, just that his poll numbers and his odds will tighten sometime between now and 4 November 2008.
Have a look at this article highlighting the vagaries of polling data and election day reality. http://www.overdetermined.net/site/content/bradley-reverse-bradley-and-double-secret-un-bradley
Also read below what Dick Morris says today (ex-Clinton adviser, but a GOP baracker):
Now the attention should logically shift to Obama. He is way ahead and McCain is nowhere to be seen. Few give McCain any chance and the debate is over whether the race is over already. This is, of course, the ideal environment for a McCain surge. All attention would normally focus on the Democrat. But it isn’t. Every American checks the market before they check the polls. The ongoing anxiety over the stock market is not only giving more and more people reason to hate the Republicans of Wall Street and their allies in Washington, but it is keeping us from focusing on Obama.
If ever the market stabilizes, Americans will be fascinated by the Ayers-Obama ties and the relationship between Farrakhan and the Democratic nominee. The increasing evidence that ACORN is committing voter fraud, registering people over and over again in anticipation of stuffing the ballot box on election day. As ACORN gets raided by the FBI, it will hurt Obama. He was general counsel to its Illinois affiliate and Obama channeled millions to the radical group when he got control over the money William Ayers got from the Annenberg Foundation.
All of these ties are damning for Obama and will reinforce the doubts that Rev. Wright first put in our minds. They will lead people to question Obama’s values and his fitness for the presidency. A man whose spiritual advisor is Rev Wright, whose financial backer is Rezco, and whose first major employer was William Ayers might not be a good choice for president. But for these associations to loom large enough in our consciousness to impact our vote, the market has to settle down so we can hear the campaign over its din.
