Tipping point in betting market??
ChimbaChumba “PollOfPollAverages” (national polls)
We create our own average from 5 pollsters that themselves do a form of “poll-averaging”. Hopefully we smooth out the bumps or discrepancies from the different methodologies, thereby creating a more reliable number as a “form-guide” for betting on the 2008 USA Presidential election. Our average is named the “ChimbaChumbaAverage“.
Pollster 48.3 – 42.7 = Obama +5.6% (y’day +5.2)
CNN 47.0 – 43.0 = Obama + 4.0% (no change)
RCP 46.6 – 44.2 = Obama + 2.4% (y’day +2.6)
538 EP 50.1 – 47.2 = Obama + 2.9% (no change)
Gallup 47.0 – 45.0 = Obama +2.0% (y’day +4.0)
ChimbaChumbaAverage: Obama +3.4% (y’day +4.0)
ChimbaChumba says: if Gallup is on the money Obama’s lead will keep narrowing. Bet McCain - at worst lock in small loss next 10 days, at best big profit. I say this because I think the polls and the betting market are about to enter into a new “alignment”. With Conventions over, VEEPs appointed and the real war underway, if the polls get back to neck-and-neck (which they look like doing), there is no way in ChimbaChumba’s opinion that the betting market can remain framed on an underlying assumption Obama has a big edge - that assumption was based on factors that are either now looking redundant, or have been swept aside by the McCain-Palin ticket that is NOT looking like Bush-Cheney.
Betting market: Obama $1.62, McCain $2.68 (3 days ago $1.62, $2.70)
“The Handicappers” - Obama’s Win Percentage
Betfair ($1.62 adjusted to 100% price): 62.2% (y’day 62.4%)
538 Electoral Predictions: 71.3% (y’day 70.3%)
Rasmussen Balance of Power Calculator: 57.3% (y’day 58.3)
Battleground states - Ohio, Virginia and Colorado
