Punters and polls in love with Sarah
ChimbaChumba’s PollofPollAverages
Apologies to the millions of readers who rely on this site for their polling and betting analysis. ChimbaChumba has been temporarily inconvenienced by the IRS, normal service shall be resumed shortly.
But I felt obliged to lodge a brief update re the betting market, and a few “I told you so’s” to all those Palin doubters.
Betfair odds: Obama $1.87, McCain (Sarah really) $2.20
ChimbaChumba says: if you backed McCain at $2.80 - $3.50, you might be tempted to hedge now at $2.20 (lock in a profit). But I reckon McCain will hit even money ($2.00) at some stage in the next 2 weeks, so I recommend holding off hedging for now - wait for an even better price on Obama. If McCain does hit $2.00? Well, my head says lay off, lock in the profit, but my gut says let it ride. My gut says Bill Clinton was right (Obama is a bad horse), but then my head says McCain is not Sarah Palin. McCain looks a bit wooden/dull to me - given the circumstances should favour the DEMs in the 2008 race, it might be silly to sniff at a chance to back Obama at evens ($2.00) and lock in that profit.
“We told you so….you read it here first”.
Far be it for pollingthepollsters to be smug, but on our August 29 “Newsflash” written as Sarah Palin delivered her 1st speeach, we noted McCain was backed from $2.80 to $2.56 and said -
“My more sober partner will probably slap me for this, but as I watch Palin’s speech I think its all over. Palin is superb, and adds reality to McCain’s rhetoric. She is a plain talker and, whilst in the Alaska backwater admittedly, she actually delivered what McCain prattles on about, “change in Washington, fighting vested interests” etc. She was elected Governor ……..”
Now at the time not much credit was due to ChimbaChumba’s assessment of Palin’s impact on the race, because it was ChimbaChumba’s buddy acting on advice that was shifting the betting market i.e. it was one person that shifted the Betfair market from McCain $2.80 to McCain $2.56.
However today pollingthepollsters feels entitled to say “We told you so, you read it here first….”.
And on our 31 August post, by which time the “realists” had pushed McCain’s price back out to $2.74, we said -
“Lets take a look a look at the reaction in the press to the Sarah Palin, and try and get a handle on whether it really should effect the odds or is irrelevant. Traditionally VEEPs don’t really count much, but there is some arguing it is different in 2008 because of the factors specific to this race.
Let me first declare my bias - I think Palin is fabulous, and from the little I have seen and read she appears a unique politician - natural warmth, no bullshit, tough and dynamic. And whilst inexperience might undo her, I think its a bold and a good gamble by McCain that maximises his chance to win. McCain was coming from behind in a year that heavily favours the Democrats - his other VEEP options were dodgy or stale, and would not have added anything to his winning chance. Sarah Palin might prove to be the same, or even worse - but at least McCain has rolled the dice, rather than remaining frozen in the spotlight.
What gells with my first impression of Palin is what her 2 opponents who ran against Palin for governor in 2006, said . “Tony and I looked at each other and it was, like, this isn’t about policy or Alaska issues, this is about people’s most basic instincts: ‘I like you (Palin), and you make me feel good.”
Now, if she looks stupid in the debates, then forget it. But what I saw was a natural politician that can connect with people (the new Bill Clinton?). These types are rare, and maybe I will be made look foolish with this appraisal. I see her as a “real and genuine person”, not a politician. And tough to boot, and some concrete achievements notwithstanding a very short resume. Her Alaska record connects with McCain’s anti-Washington platform - and adds reality to the rhetoric.
What I think the Palin-critics overlook is that she is not on the ticket to win feminists or political activists on the left. She is on the ticket to shore up the right, plus hopefully grab 2% in the “middle” or from “anywhere”. The 2% (if they exist), might be Ohio mums in the supermarket, or closet racists who now have an excuse to vote GOP (choosing the “female historic opportunity”, rather than the “African-American historic opportunity”. And from the little polling we have seen it indicates Sarah is more popular with men than women - perhaps that should be no surprise! (a) she looks pretty damn good! (b) and maybe she just impressed blokes on her merits i.e. the dynamic no-nonsense image might go down well with blokes?
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Enough of my jaundiced comments - below is a snapshot of the different views in today’s press - you make up your own mind what the post-Palin odds should be”.
