“Poll pingpong” or a fair dinkum lead?
ChimbaChumba “PollOfPollAverages” (national polls)
We create our own average from 5 pollsters that themselves do a form of “poll-averaging”. Hopefully we smooth out the bumps or discrepancies from the different methodologies, thereby creating a more reliable number as a “form-guide” for betting on the 2008 USA Presidential election. Our average is named the “ChimbaChumba Average”.
Pollster Obama +3.0%
CNN Obama + 4.0%
RCP Obama + 1.9%
538 EP Obama + 1.8%
Gallup Obama +5.0%
“ChimbaChumba Average” +3.5%
Betfair market: Obama $1.67, McCain $2.58
ChimbaChumba says: Dick Morris’ e-mail newsletter provides a good short summary re the state of play the last few weeks. Ignore the heading, Dick takes off his GOP hat in the final sentence quoted below.
“Big Shift to McCain” (by Dick Morris)
There was a gigantic turn toward John McCain in the two weeks immediately after the GOP convention. In large part this was due to the Sarah Palin nomination, and the tremendous miscalculation by the Democrats in attacking Palin, particularly on issues important to women, such as her caring for her children. That backfired massively. The anti-Palin attack by the Democrats showed a cultural disconnect with America that is remarkable.
Now, the contest is transitioning from post-convention issues to a race dominated by the economy. The key to that for Barack Obama is to stress the liability of the incumbent party for the mess that we’re in economically. For McCain, it will be stressing that Obama’s tax proposals will make the situation worse.
There has been a huge change among unmarried women, particularly, due in part to the hostile reaction of the Democrats to Palin. There are indications that the momentum of the race may be reversing itself again, however, as a result of the economy. (my underline)
Now, the contest is transitioning from post-convention issues to a race dominated by the economy. The key to that for Barack Obama is to stress the liability of the incumbent party for the mess that we’re in economically. For McCain, it will be stressing that Obama’s tax proposals will make the situation worse.
There has been a huge change among unmarried women, particularly, due in part to the hostile reaction of the Democrats to Palin. There are indications that the momentum of the race may be reversing itself again, however, as a result of the economy. (my underline)
ChimbaChumba says: To me this is a pretty good summary of the last fortnight, and despite teh usual daggers thrown by Dick at Obama, in his last sentence he acknowledges the ground may be shifting to Obama in the last few days.
Where I disagree with Dick Morris is his conclusion as to why the poll numbers have shifted back to Obama. I think it is premature to form a conclusion as to why Obama regained the poll lead, and ChimbaChumba thinks this has created a value betting opportunity.
Gallup today says: “Presidential preferences continue to shift toward Barack Obama in the midst of an unsettling Wall Street crisis that is shining a different spotlight on the presidential candidates. Voters now prefer Obama over John McCain by 49% to 44%“.
Let me set it out my case in my usual tedious manner -
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McCain took the poll lead convincingly post-Convention/Palin (regardless of whether Dick is right as to why that happened i.e. Dick says the DEMs handled the Palin factor badly) there is no denying it did happen i.e. McCain grabbed a solid poll lead for about 10 days and the DEM’s looked a bit rattled.
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Obama has now grabbed back a very narrow poll lead because, in Dick’s mind and in Gallup’s mind, “its the economy stupid”.
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But if you read Gallup’s analysis from about 5-6 days ago you might interpret this shift back to Obama differently. Gallup said then (my paraphrasing) “this is a close race where, based on precedent close races, the poll lead will trade back and forth in the period 20-60 days out from election”.
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ChimbaChumba conclusion: Dick and “Gallup today” might be wrong to conclude its the “economy stupid” that restored Obama’s poll numbers (bear in mind oil prices are dropping as well, which might help ease the pain taking some heat off McCain?).
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It might be the current Obama poll lead is nothing more than the “Gallup close-race pingpong” - the case made by Gallup 5-6 days ago.
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Therefore, ChimbaChumba says there is a big chance the betting market is wrong to have pushed McCain back out the gate from $2.20 3 days ago, to $2.58 today. This market move is only sound if you buy the assumption Obama’s poll lead will be maintained or increased due to the financial firestorm in USA last week, added to the “economy stupid” macro conditions that should favour a DEM candidate in 2008.
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ChimbaChumba says pundits and punters alike should not be distracted by a few minor poll flucs, coinciding with the Wall Street shakeout last week, and pundits and punters should not jump to premature conclusions. In 2 weeks Wall Street may be worse, but will that lead to the USA embracing Obama as the saviour on 4 November (45 days to go…..).
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ChimbaChumba says that as at today the horses are turning into the home straight, and cool heads can see it is hard to sort out who is favourite. Is the horse one length behind out of petrol, or just timing his run? Is the horse in front leading because he is a better horse? The truth is we will not get a clear indication until about the 200 metre mark i.e. on 28-29 September, 2-3 days after the 1st Presidential Debate. 26 September 2008 is the 1st CPD sanctioned Presidential debate at Uni of Mississippi on Foreign Policy & National Security. In a close race debates matter - the fairy floss prior to then is not all that important.
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The sum of all the evidence available to the punters in the grandstand as the horses turn into the home straight tells us this is a very competitive race, and as such the odds should still be close to a coin-toss. Obama’s brief surge in the national polls is not important unless he holds that lead for a longer period, or adds to that lead. A 5 point lead on Gallup can disappear without anything significant happeneing in the next 9 days. If Obama has a 5 point lead still on 26 September, McCain could be in front 3 days later depending on what happens in the debate.
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So bet on the fact that Gallup was right 4-5 days ago (“Gallup close-race pingpong”) and back McCain at $2.58 today. Then pray for poll pingpong, and if MCcain’s price gets back near $2.20, lock in an arbitrage profit by betting Obama.
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Is Bradley running? Is it a 3 horse race? I would welcome comments from readers more intelligent than the writer, but I cannot help but think an added reason to back McCain at $2.58 is the possibility the Bradley factor is not a myth. Can we be sure if Obama is +5% in the polls today that he actually has a poll lead at all? It cannot be ruled out imo that McCain is ahead in the polls as at this moment. We will not know if Bradley was in the race or not until after 4 November 2008.
September 24th, 2008 at 8:50 pm
so will mccain show up 4 the debate…..will palin take his place???…stand by….
September 29th, 2008 at 7:54 am
Palin is going to cost the GOP this election. That interview with Katie Couric was one of the sickest things I have ever seen. Christ this lady’s incompetence and stupidity is scary.