McCain blows in the betting, Obama hits poll high
ChimbaChumba’s PollOfPollAverages” (national polls)
Pollster 48.8 - 43.6 = Obama +5.2% (y’day +2.7)
CNN 49.0 - 43.0 = Obama + 5.0% (y’day +5.0)
RCP 49.2 - 42.8 = Obama + 6.4% (y’day +4.5)
538 EP 49.7 - 47.3 = Obama + 2.4 (y’day + 1.7)
Gallup 50.0 - 42.0 = Obama +8.0 (y’day +6.0)
ChimbaChumbaAverage: Obama +5.60% (y’day +3.98%)
ChimbaChumba says: Obama bounds ahead from + 3.98% to +5.60% in the national polls, a new high point for Obama. The same question arises - is it mere convention bubble or not? If just a “Convention bubble“, from Obama’s perspective the silver lining is that at least he now has a bubble on a par with his DEM predecessors.
Betting market: Obama $1.54, McCain $2.98 (y’day $1.61, $2.76)
“The Handicappers” - Obama’s Win Percentage
Betfair ($1.54 adjusted to 100% price): 65.78% (y’day 63.03%)
538 Electoral Predictions: 68.50% (y’day 64.90%)
Rasmussen Balance of Power Calculator: 61.90% (y’day 61.10%)
ChimbaChumba says: McCain has got the blows in the betting market, out to a price we last saw 16 days ago. Is it because punters have panicked re Obama poll-convention-bubble? Or has the market been spooked by Sarah Palin (and Bristol)?
ChimbaChumba’s Daily “PollofPollAverages” in key battleground states, and the Electoral College vote tracker
The first poll on this blog measures the average of national polls. In this section we keep a daily watch on state polls in Ohio, Colorado and Virginia, three key battleground states. In this section we also include a daily update of the Electoral College vote count from all states, awarding the electoral votes for each state based on today’s poll average for each specific state (i.e. disregarding the national polls).
Colorado - Obama +1.43% (y’day +1.23)
Ohioooo - Obama + 0.60% (y’day +0.26%)
Virginia - Obama +1.00% (y’day +0.73%)
ChimbaChumba says - This is where we realise there is currently no form-guide being published for this race. Obama still holds a small lead, slightly increased, in our 3 battleground watch states. Whereas the national polls give Obama a rocket. Readers at this site realise that, if the election is close, national polls are irrelevant, what matters is the outcome in 3-4-5 swing states. OK - so what do we have - in the above 3 states, there has been no new polls for bloody ages! We are in the dark! So we have dual problem of interpreting national polls containing convention-bubble, and a state polls vacuum! If you have balls of steel then back McCain at $2.98, and pray Obama’s poll numbers are a convention bubble, and that Sarah Palin has not damaged McCain.
ChimbaChumba’s Electoral College Vote Tracker
Obama: 260 EC votes + New Hampshire(4) + Colorado(9) + Ohio(20) + Virginia(13) = 306 EC votes (+20)no change)
McCain: 227 EC votes + Nevada(5) = 232 EC votes (-20)
September 3rd, 2008 at 4:48 pm
The line blowing out on McCain here is due to backlash over Sarah Palin.
I’m considering whether or not to pitch a k or 2 on her NOT being nominated tonight.
InTrade line on Palin being ditched before the election has been as high as 19% yesterday (currently trading at 14%).
September 3rd, 2008 at 5:49 pm
Don’t waste that “k or 2″ Jonny! Sarah Palin is gonna deliver a bravura speech in about 4 hours that will rate its socks off on American TV (of course, young Bristol and Levi might claim some of the credit for the ratings..). I’m tipping Sarah can prick Obama’s convention-poll-bubble.
Your last comment looks more perspicacious imo (”McCain still being huge overs, don’t wimp by hedging”). I see McCain has tightened a little Betfair $2.98 to $2.94 whilst I slept last night.