We create our own average from 5 pollsters that themselves do a form of “poll-averaging”. Hopefully we smooth out the bumps or discrepancies from the different methodologies, thereby creating a more reliable number as a “form-guide” for betting on the 2008 USA Presidential election. Our average is named the “ChimbaChumbaAverage“.

 Pollster     48.1 – 42.4  =  Obama +5.2%  (3 days ago +5.2)

 CNN         47.0 – 43.0  =  Obama + 4.0%  (3 days ago +5.0)

 RCP          46.6 – 44.0  =  Obama + 2.6%  (3 days ago +6.4)

 538 EP      50.0 – 47.1  =  Obama + 2.9% (3 days ago +2.4)

 Gallup      48.0 – 44.0  =  Obama +4.0%  (3 days ago +8.0)

ChimbaChumbaAverage:  Obama +3.7%  (3 days ago +5.6)

ChimbaChumba says: Obama’s Convention-poll-bubble begins to shrink, and will shrink further in the next few days as the “pollaveragers” absorb the more recent national polls. The Palin appointment has energised the GOP base, and even McCain seems more enthused. The punters have stepped in to trim McCain’s price to $2.70. I still feel this is a large overlay, with the race looking more competitive since Palin arrived - I think there is a 50-60% chance McCain’s odds will be circa $2.30 soemtime in the next 10 days.

Betting market: Obama $1.62, McCain $2.70 (3 days ago $1.54, $2.98)

“The Handicappers” - Obama’s Win Percentage
Betfair ($1.62 adjusted to 100% price):         62.4%   (3 days ago 65.8%)
538 Electoral Predictions:                               70.3%   (3 days ago 68.5%)
Rasmussen Balance of Power Calculator:   58.3%   (3 days ago 61.9%)

ChimbaChumba says - I am flummoxed how 538’s model punches out a 70.3% winning chance for Obama, simply in comparison to 538’s own earlier estimate when the poll numbers were much the same. 538 has made a number of changes to its projection model lately, and I think it has gone haywire. They will fix it, they are a smart mob, but at the moment I don’t trust it.  

Battleground states

ChimbaChumba’s “PollofPollAverages” (state polls)

The first poll on this blog measures the average of national polls. In this section we keep a watch on state polls in key battleground states. Every day we track Ohio, Virginia and Colorado, but once a week, on Friday 23.00 ET time, we expand the analysis to 8 battleground states.

We also update the Electoral College vote count based on the state polls (i.e. we disregard the national polls). This is very dodgy at the moment with very few new reliable state polls from the battleground last week.

ChimbaChumba’s Weekly Battleground States “PollOfPollAverages”

In the “ChimbaChumbaAverage” column below, the numbers in blue show the position in each of the 8 states. All numbers are expressed in terms of Obama’s position i.e. + means Obama is ahead, - means Obama is trailing.

For example, today Obama trails by 0.5% in Nevada, but leads by 1.1% in Ohio. The numbers in brackets on the right are the comparable average in each state from the last 4 weeks e.g. in Nevada 4 weeks ago Obama was +1.0%, 3 weeks ago Obama was -2.2% in Nevada, 2 weeks ago he was -1.1%, last week he was -0.9, and today Obama is -0.5% in the ChimbaChumba average of the state poll-averages from 538, Pollster and RCP.

Below the main table the average of each of the pollsters is shown in the prior weeks - maybe we will identify a bias by being able to look at the history. Under the CCAverage, we show Obama’s average lead or deficit in each of the 8 states, as well as the avaerage lead held by Obama across all 8 states. The latter number has no purpose except to monitor overall movement across these 8 battleground states, which could be important if it indicated a different trend to the national polls. This week Obama has an average lead across all 8 battlegrounds of 3.2%, up from 2.1% last week, and 1.6% the previous week etc.

                                     538  Pollster  RCP   ChimbaChumbaAverage

Nevada (5)                   +0.3      -0.7     -1.0     -0.5    (-0.9, -1.1, -2.2, +1.0)
Ohio (20)                     +2.0      +1.9     -0.6     +1.1    (-0.1, -0.5, +1.5, +1.8)
Virginia (13)                +2.4      +1.3       0.0      +1.2    (+0.3, -0.5, -0.2, +1.3)
Colorado (9)                +2.3      +1.8     +0.4     +1.5    (+1.0, -0.2, +0.7, +1.7)
Iowa (7)                        +9.6      +8.9     +9.0     +9.2    (+5.8, +5.4, +5.6, +5.9)
New Mexico (5)            +8.3      +7.2     +4.3     +6.6    (+5.7, +4.5, +6.0, +6.3)
Michigan (17)               +4.8      +5.1     +4.3     +4.7    (+4.1, +3.7, +3.8, +4.0)
New Hamp. (4)             +3.9      +1.6     +0.3     +1.9    (+1.1, +1.3, +3.3, +3.6)
Pollster Average       +4.2    +3.4   +2.1     +3.2%

Average 1 week ago     +1.7      +3.1   +1.5    +2.1%

Average 2 weeks ago    +0.6     +2.9    +1.2   +1.6%
Average 3 weeks ago    +1.5     +3.6    +1.8   +2.3%
Average 4 weeks ago    +2.5     +3.8    +2.6   +2.9%

ChimbaChumba’s Electoral College Vote Tracker