Obama retakes Ohio. Convention bubble or..?
“ChimbaChumba’s PollOfPollAverages” (national polls)
Pollster 48.4 - 45.7 = Obama +2.7% (2 days ago +1.6)
CNN 49.0 - 44.0 = Obama + 5.0% (2 days ago +4.0)
RCP 48.8 - 44.3 = Obama + 4.5% (2 days ago +3.9)
538 EP 49.3 - 47.6 = Obama + 1.7 (2 days ago +0.9)
Gallup 49.0 - 43.0 = Obama +6.0 (2 days ago +8.0)
ChimbaChumbaAverage: Obama +3.98% (y’day +3.68%)
ChimbaChumba says: Obama + 3.98% is probably the DEM Convention-Sarah Palin benchmark. Obama’s high was +4.25% on 13 August, after which he went to Berlin, stopped the rise in the oceans, and slumped to +0.95% on 20 August. Well, he is now getting back towards his high point. Is this just “the usual Convention bubble“? If so, it is actually on the low side, but bear in mind 538 and Pollster “model” their numbers.
On that topic, I note that 538 has adjusted their formula to remove the “convention bounce adjustment factor“ from their model - ffs, make up your mind 538! They retain a “smoother“, supposedly adjusting for short-term flucs. This change in methodology has dramatically altered 538’s “winning percentage” (see under “The Handicappers below).
On the other hand, the Gallup number is only a 3 day rolling average, and Gallup does reflect the more typical DEM ”Convention bubble” (but still a little on the low side).
Betting market: Obama $1.61, McCain $2.76 (y’day $1.63, $2.74)
“The Handicappers” - Obama’s Win Percentage
Betfair ($1.61 adjusted to 100% price): 63.03% (y’day 61.68%)
538 Electoral Predictions: 64.90% (y’day 58.90%)
Rasmussen Balance of Power Calculator: 61.10% (y’day 59.50%)
ChimbaChumba says: Betting market in a narrow range for the last week, Obama between $1.58 -$1.64, and McCain between $2.62-$2.80.
ChimbaChumba’s Daily “PollofPollAverages” in key battleground states, and the Electoral College vote tracker
The first poll on this blog measures the average of national polls. In this section we keep a daily watch on state polls in Ohio & Colorado (and from today Virginia), two three key battleground states. Every Saturday we expand the analysis to 8 battleground states. In this section we also include a daily update of the Electoral College vote count from all states, awarding the electoral votes for each state based on today’s poll average for each specific state (i.e. disregarding the national polls).
OK - I admit Plouffe may be right re Virginia - we are going to add it to our daily watch of key battlegrounds. With 21% African-American population, and Plouffe’s alleged groundgame skills, who knows what will happen in Virginia. From a punter’s perspective it is perplexing whether polls will be a reliable formguide in a state like Virginia.
To make the table simpler, we are not reporting separate numbers from RCP, Pollster and 538, just the ChimbaChumba average of all 3 “pollaveragers”. From 538 we choose to take the “trend-adjusted number“, not their “regression adjusted number“.
Colorado - Obama +1.23% (2 days ago +1.03)
Ohioooo - Obama + 0.26% (2 days ago -0.10%)
Virginia - Obama +0.73% (2 days ago +0.33%)
This may just be “convention bubble“, but Obama snatched back Ohio today, which is arguably the most critical battleground states with 20 EC votes. Obama took Virginia a few days ago as well, so the Electoral College Vote Tracker looks damn good for Obama at this moment.
Sweaty week ahead for McCain punters, hoping that bubble bursts, and only one of Palin’s daughters is pregnant! One is an accident, two is….
ChimbaChumba’s Electoral College Vote Tracker
Obama: 260 EC votes + New Hampshire(4) + Colorado(9) + Ohio(20) + Virginia(13) = 306 EC votes (+20)no change)
McCain: 227 EC votes + Nevada(5) = 232 EC votes (-20)
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:39 am
The New York Times and ABC are carrying a story that Palin was a member of the Alaskan Independence Party during the 90’s - nothing wrong with this, except for the obvious - that the Alaskan Independence Party holds that the state of Alaska is being illegally occupied by the United States, an occupation that is “in violation of United Nations charter and international law”.
McCain’s motto: “Country First”
AIP’s motto: “Alaska First - Alaska Always”
This has gotten WAY past hilarious. You can be sure of only one thing, there is a LOT more entertainment to come.
September 2nd, 2008 at 3:01 am
bloody hell jonny - you are ruining my love affair with Sarah Palin.
September 2nd, 2008 at 6:02 am
A love affair with Sarah Palin? You must be joking. Is this a manifestation of a 10-year hangover for Pauline Hanson? The woman is clearly a loon, even if she did go after some of the crooks in the Alaskan Republican Party.
The more I look at what’s been happening, the more I think this week has turned into a disaster for McCain. They may be pleased that they had an excuse to exclude Bush and Cheney from the convention, but they’ve also lost days of powerful TV images and free publicity. And the hurricane didn’t even turn out to be a hurricane! All they’ve done is remind people of what a debacle they presided over with Katrina.
And the Palin selection is a cock-up too. It’s an embarrassment, even without all this stuff about the baby. I think it undercuts the one big strength McCain had, namely a perception that he has judgement. In nominating this clown as VP he now looks irresponsible
Will we look back in 10 weeks time and decide that the election was determined over the past few days?
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:09 am
well MF, tell the punters who have already backed Mccain, do they hedge now on Obama or what?
September 3rd, 2008 at 4:42 pm
Don’t underestimate the stupidity of the American voters. McCain is huge overs.
Hedging is for wimps.