Sarah Palin not the mother? Punters don’t believe, or don’t think it matters
The internet is abuzz with the “story” that Sarah Palin is not the mother of the “5th child”.
We make no further comment in respect of the story.
But we are keenly interested in the potential impact on the betting market, whether the story is bullshit or not. So far the odds are unaffected i.e.
Betfair Odds 12 hours ago - Obama $1.63 McCain $2.74
Betfair Odds now - Obama $1.61 McCain $2.72
Diverting for a moment - 3 new developments. One break for McCain today is the news that Bush won’t attend the GOP Convention because he needs to monitor Gustav - wow - thats very useful for McCain! Gallup just out has gap reduced from 8% to 6% which includes two days of interviews (out of the 4 days in the poll) after Obama’s acceptance speech as well as McCain’s vice-presidential announcement. And I just read an interesting snippet at Politico, saying Palin has electrified what was till now an unenthusiastic GOP base (the anti-abortionists, the gun lobby etc). This could be important when it comes to GOTV (get out the vote). This could negate Plouffe’s alleged superior ground game skills, which could have carried at least Virginia for Obama, and more states if you buy Plouffe’s plan. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/13016.html
Returning to the baby story, (which if true would be a bigger story than Lindy Chamberlain, Azaria and the dingo). One reason the betting may not be effected is because no-one believes the story. On the other hand, perhaps simply not enough people have picked up on the story yet. I haven’t seen mention on CNN or FOX - has anyone seen it anywhere except the trash blogs?
If the rumour is not true? It arguably helps McCain/Palin if Palin is victim of a scurrilous attack. They can claim she was swiftboated (even though the boat sank).
If the rumour is true? I am not sure - it would be such an amazing and unprecedented turn of events how could anyone know what it does to McCain’s chances. Palin has arguably behaved in an extremely noble fashion viz her daughter, and held true to her core values (if it is a true story). If she told some “necessary fibs” along the way, is that such a dealbreaker in the circumstances? Perhaps it is - I have no damn idea. Could there even be a sympathy vote?
And whilst I think it would be harder/impossible for a Presidential candidate to survive such a story, I don’t buy the idea voters will evaluate Palin as someone who must be capable of being Commander-in-Chief. Thats just a weak and obvious political argument in my opinion.
Despite McCain’s age, which makes it more likely Palin could be numero uno, I still don’t think voters give a damn whether VEEP is ready to be C-i-C. Remember Dan Quayle? Though sager heads than mine point out that Bush the 1st (with Quayle as VEEP) was only up against Dukakis. But anyway, I still think voters are not that “analytical”, whereby they would switch because McCain might fall off the twig. And anyway - lets say he does fall off the twig after say 2 years - Sarah will have had 2 years experience as VEEP!
FOOTNOTE - if you are not a punter, you might wonder how both candidates can shorten at the same time (as they did in our comparison above). Thats because the market at Betfair fluctuates from being “very competitive” to “not so competitive”. All thats really changed is, prior to adjusting for 2% commission to Betfair, its gone from being a 97.85% market to 98.87% market. Its like when the bookies first put up the odds at the track - initially its an uncompetitive quote, and sometimes the price on every horse gets better - the market starts at say 135% and finishes at 108%.
August 31st, 2008 at 11:27 pm
The baby story is grubby stuff and not worth discussing in relation to Palin’s fitness for the job.
The real problem lies in whether she has been properly vetted by the McCain camp. Given her last-minute selection, it may well be that she hasn’t been vetted fully.
The so-called Troopergate issue is potentially more damaging because it raises questions of using an elective office for personal gain.
If these issues are still running at the end of the week, it could be a problem for McCain.
But the Convention looks like it has now been completely subsumed by the New Orleans situation. Fortuitously, Bush and Cheney have pulled out of attending the convention. However, it isn’t clear how much the convention will be sidelined by Gustav. This could derail Republican hopes of a convention bounce.
It’s going to be an interesting week!
September 1st, 2008 at 8:17 pm
All national and internation news networks are carrying the Palin admission that her 17 yr old daughter is 5 months pregant.
lol @ retarded Republicans. The McCain camp is claiming that McCain knew this prior to selecting Palin, but this is obviously hogwash and he would be FURIOUS right now.
It will be interesting to see how many religious voters the GOP loses over this issue.
Liberal bloggers own.
September 3rd, 2008 at 1:50 am
Of course, they would say that you may say. But the following from Washington Post and TheFix at this point answers your question MF (comment 1 above). That doesn’t mean it was good judgement to proceed with the selection of Palin..time will tell.
No Surprises From Palin, McCain Team Says
Daughter’s Pregnancy and Trooper Controversy Were Revealed Before Pick, According to Campaign Aide
As the GOP convenes in St. Paul, presumptive presidential nominee John McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, tour around the country.
ST. PAUL, Minn., Sept. 1 — Before she was chosen to be Sen. John McCain’s running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin submitted to a three-hour interview with the head of his vice presidential search team, and responded to a 70-question form that included “intrusive personal questions,” a senior campaign aide said Monday.
The aide said all facts about Palin’s record and background that have caused controversy as they were revealed in the past few days — including the ongoing “troopergate” investigation and the fact that Palin’s 17-year-old daughter is pregnant — were known to the McCain campaign. Washington lawyer Arthur B. Culvahouse Jr. led the search team.
“Nothing that has come out did not come out in the vet. She was fully vetted,” the senior aide said.