Polls tied in Colorado battleground
The Pollsters & ChimbaChumba’s PollOfPollAverages
Obama McCain
Pollster 45.1 - 42.8 (+ 2.3%) (y’day +2.6%)
CNN 47.0 - 41.0 (+ 6.0%) (no change)
RCP 45.0 - 41.8 (+ 3.2%) (y’day +3.5%)
538 49.3 - 48.1 (+ 1.2%) (y’day +1.3)
ChimbaChumba’s PollOfPollAverages: Obama +3.17% (y’day +3.75%)
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Betting Market (Betfair)
Obama $1.52, McCain $3.20 (y’day - Obama $1.52, McCain $3.15)
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The Handicappers - Obama’s Win Percentage
Betfair ($1.52 adjusted to 100% price) - 67.29% (y’day 67.45%)
538 Electoral Predictions - 58.2% (y’day 59.5%)
Rasmussen Balance of Power Calculator - 60.4% (y’day 60.2%)
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Ohio & Colorado watch (key swing States if race is to be close)
Obama’s lead Ohio Colorado
RCP +0.50 (no change) -0.5 (y’day +0.4)
Pollster +3.60 (no change) +0.2 (y’day +0.9)
538 (trend-adj.) +0.20 (y’day +0.3) +0.3 (y’day +0.9)
CC’s PollOfPollAverages: +1.43(y’day+1.46) 0.00 (y’day +0.73)
538 Projected Win %: Ohio 51%-49% (no change); Colorado 53%-47% (y’day 58-42)
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ChimbaChumba says - Betting market with McCain at $3.20 remains wrong imo. McCain has drawn level in the polls in Colorado, and has hit the front in Nevada and Virginia. RCP and 538 have Ohio extremely close, though Pollster still has Obama +3.6. Based on Rasmussen’s “State By State Balance of Power” table, the race is getting tighter. If McCain were to hit the front in Ohio (which looks quite plausible), then McCain would be “winning” the Presidential election by 1 electoral college vote! Empty the wallet on McCain at $3.20 - you can lock in a profit betting back on Obama when the betting market catches up with the movement in the polls.
