August 11, 2008

Polls diverge, McCain drifts in betting - arbitrage opportunity

By ChimbaChumba
Topics:
Poll Averages
The Pollsters & ChimbaChumba’s Poll of PollAverages 

                              Pollster    45.9   -   43.4       (+ 2.5%)  (no change)

                              CNN        48.0   -   43.0       (+ 5.0%)  (no change)

                              RCP        46.8   -   42.0       (+ 4.8%)  (y’day +4.4)

                              538         49.7   -   47.8        (+ 1.9%)  (y’day +2.0)

ChimbaChumba’s Poll of PollAverages: Obama +3.55%   (yesterday +3.45%)
 
Betting Market (Betfair)
Obama $1.53, McCain $3.15 (y’day - Obama $1.54, McCain $3.10)
The Handicappers - Obama’s Win Percentage
Betfair ($1.53 adjusted to 100% price)     - 67.2% (y’day 66.7%)
538 Electoral Predictions                               - 63.5% (y’day 63.9%)
Rasmussen Balance of Power Calculator  - 60.0% (y’day 60.1%)
Ohio watch (key swing State with 20 electoral college votes) 
RCP Ohio                                          46.0 - 45.5 (Obama +0.5%) (no change)
Pollster Ohio                                   46.1 - 42.5 (Obama +3.6%) (no change)
538 (trend-adjusted) Ohio        46.3 - 45.2 (Obama +1.1%) (y’day Obama +1.4%)
538 Projected Win % Ohio - Obama 54%, McCain 46% (y’day 56% - 54%)
ChimbaChumba says - Pollster and 538 have diverged from RCP/CNN - who do we believe? On the same day RCP extends Obama’s lead to 4.8%, 538 reduces Obama’s lead to 1.9% - go figure. Today 538 also tightened the race in our “watch-State” Ohio. Yet in the betting market McCain has somewhat contrarily drifted to $3.15?  538 does the most professional job imo, and Pollster is in line with 538. Thats good enough for my money - sack CNN and RCP - put your money on McCain at $3.15 - attractive arbitrage opportunity methinks.

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