August 19, 2008

McCain is officially the frontrunner! (apologies to the 99.9% too stupid to notice)

By ChimbaChumba
Topics:
Poll Averages

 The Pollsters &  ChimbaChumba’s PollOfPollAverages                           

                             Pollster    45.4   -   44.0   (+1.4%)  (y’day +2.2%

                              CNN        46.0   -   43.0   (+ 3.0%)  (y’day + 6.0%)

                              RCP         44.9   -   43.7   (+ 1.2%)  (y’day +3.6%)

                              538         48.9   -   48.3   (+ 0.6%)  (y’day +0.9%)

ChimbaChumba’s PollOfPollAverages: Obama +1.50%   (y’day +3.17%)
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Betting Market (Betfair)
Obama $1.58, McCain $2.94  (y’day - Obama $1.52, McCain $3.15)
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The Handicappers - Obama’s Win Percentage
Betfair ($1.58 adjusted to 100% price)     - 65.05% (y’day 67.20%)
538 Electoral Predictions                         - 53.9%  (y’day 56.0%)
Rasmussen Balance of Power Calculator  - 58.3% (y’day 59.9%)
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Ohio & Colorado watch (key swing States if race is to be close) 
Obama’s lead             Ohio                      Colorado                                                             
RCP                                   -1.0 (y’day -1,5)       -0.5 (no change)
Pollster                             +1.7 (y’day +3.3)       +0.2 (no change)
538 (trend-adj.)                -1.2 (y’day -0.9)       -0.1 (y’day +0.2)
CC’s PollOfPollAverages:  -0.17(y’day+0.30)     -0.13 (y’day -0.03)
538 Projected Win %:  Ohio 45%-55% (no change); Colorado 51%-49% (yday 52-48)
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ChimbaChumba says - Wake up stupid!!! McCain now has the lead in Ohio and Colorado, add to that Virginia and Nevada where he hit the front weeks ago, and what we now have is a new frontrunner! If you did not take $3.15-3.20 for McCain, as we advised you to do every day for the last week, then we cannot compensate for your stupidity. The betting market has partially awoken to the changed landscape, trimming McCain’s price from $3.15 to $2.94, but we say this is still way over the odds.  

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