Obama’s speech or Sarah Palin? Polls go for the speech, punters go for Palin…
ChimbaChumba’s “PollOfPollAverages” (national polls)
Pollster 46.5 - 44.9 = Obama +1.6% (no change)
CNN 46.0 - 42.0 = Obama + 4.0% (no change)
RCP 47.7 - 43.8 = Obama + 3.9% (y’day +2.9%)
538 EP 48.8 - 47.9 = Obama + 0.9 (y’day +0.8%)
Gallup 49.0 - 41.0 = Obama +8.0 (y’day +6.0)
ChimbaChumbaAverage: Obama +3.68% (y’day +3.06%)
Obama jumps again today to +3.68%. His biggest lead was +4.25 on 13 August, his low point +0.95 on 20 August. Today’s improvement is presumably the 1st instalment of Obama’s Convention bounce, and it may be it is not yet fully reflected in the polls. Remember, the traditional DEM “poll convention bounces” have been 5-9%, so arguably punters should devalue the current polls. Once the Palin appointment has been digested and the GOP convention held, the polls will tell a truer story (about 10 days from now). But remember - the election will ultimately be decided when the debates start, and the real campaign gets going. Only then can we put a lot of faith in the polls, and make a clearer assessment of the correct odds for each horse.
In the betting market punters ignored Obama’s speech and the uptick in his polls, and on the back of the Palin VP pick shortened McCain’s price to $2.62.
Betting Market (Betfair): Obama $1.62, McCain $2.62 (y’day $1.58, $2.80)
“The Handicappers” - Obama’s Win Percentage
Betfair ($1.62 adjusted to 100% price): 61.68% (y’day 63.80%)
538 Electoral Predictions: 58.00% (y’day 57.50%)
Rasmussen Balance of Power Calculator: 59.50% (y’day 60.20%)
ChimbaChumba’s Daily “PollofPollAverages” in key battleground states, and the Electoral College vote tracker
The first poll on this blog measures the average of national polls. In this section we keep a watch on state polls in key battleground states. Every day we track Ohio and Colorado, but on Friday night ET time we do a weekly analysis of 8 battleground states. We also update the Electoral College vote count based on the state polls (i.e. we disregard the national polls).
ChimbaChumba’s Electoral College Vote Tracker
Obama: 260 EC votes + New Hampshire(4) + Colorado(9) + Virginia(13) = 286 EC votes (+13)
McCain: 227 EC votes + Ohio(20) + Nevada(5) = 252 EC votes (-13)
ChimbaChumba says - Virginia flips to Obama ! Obama ”wins” the Presidential election by 34 EC votes!
ChumbaChumba’s Weekly Battleground States “PollOfPollAverages”
In the “ChimbaChumbaAverage” column below, the numbers in brackets on the right are the comparable average from the last 3 weeks to show the movement in that period. All numbers are expressed in terms of Obama’s position i.e. - means Obama is trailing, + means Obama is ahead.
538 Pollster RCP ChimbaChumbaAverage
Nevada (5) -1.0 -0.7 -1.0 -0.90 (-1.1, -2.2, +1.0)
Ohio (20) -0.8 +1.7 -1.2 -0.10 (-0.5, +1.5, +1.8)
Virginia (13) -0.3 +1.3 0.0 +0.33 (-0.5, -0.2, +1.3)
Colorado (9) +0.9 +1.8 +0.4 +1.03 (-0.17, +0.7, +1.7)
Iowa (7) +5.5 +6.5 +5.3 +5.77 (+5.4, +5.6, +5.9)
New Mexico (5) +5.7 +7.2 +4.3 +5.73 (+4.5, +6.0, +6.3)
Michigan (17) +2.9 +5.1 +4.3 +4.10 (+3.7, +3.8, +4.0)
New Hamp. (4) +1.3 +1.6 +0.3 +1.06 (+1.3, +3.3, +3.6)
Average (all 8 States) +1.7 +3.1 +1.5 +2.13%
Last weeks average +0.59 +2.92 +1.21 +1.57%
2 weeks ago average +1.55 +3.55 +1.84 +2.31%
3 weeks ago average +2.55 +3.76 +2.60 +2.95%
ChimbaChumba says - This is the 4th week we have calculated the ChimbaChumba average for these 8 states, so what is important this week? Bear in mind these movements occur during the DEM convention week.
By grabbing Virginia, Obama now has the lead in sufficient battleground states to enable him to “win” the election by a bigger margin than last week.
McCain’s lead in the crucial state of Ohio has been cut to the barest of margins. He also hangs on narrowly in Nevada.
Obama has maintained solid leads in Iowa, New Mexico and Michigan. Michigan had looked a little shaky, but looks much better for Obama now. Interestingly, New Hampshire went against the trend, moving a little towards McCain. Over the last 21 days Obama’s lead in New Hampshire, as measured under the ChimbaChumbaAverage, has been cut from 3.6% to 1.06%.
August 30th, 2008 at 6:20 am
Read this - I’m saying nothing more!