August 15, 2008
By ChimbaChumba
Daily Update - The Pollsters & ChimbaChumba’s PollOfPollAverages
Obama McCain
Pollster 44.9 - 42.3 (+ 2.6%) (y’day +3.5%)
CNN 47.0 - 41.0 (+ 6.0%) (no change)
RCP 45.2 - 41.7 (+ 3.5%) (y’day +4.2%)
538 49.4 - 48.1 (+ 1.3%) (no change)
ChimbaChumba’s PollOfPollAverages: Obama +3.75% (y’day +4.25%)
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Betting Market (Betfair)
Obama $1.52, McCain $3.15 (y’day - Obama $1.52, McCain $3.20)
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The Handicappers - Obama’s Win Percentage
Betfair ($1.51 adjusted to 100% price) - 67.45% (y’day 67.64%)
538 Electoral Predictions - 59.5% (no change)
Rasmussen Balance of Power Calculator - 60.2% (y’day 61.5%)
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Ohio & Colorado watch (key swing States if race is to be close)
Obama’s lead Ohio Colorado
RCP +0.50 (no change) +0.4 (y’day +1.6)
Pollster +3.60 (no change) +0.9 (y’day +2.5)
538 (trend-adj.) +0.30 (y’day+1.8) +0.9 (y’day +2.4)
CC’s PollOfPollAverages: +1.46(y’day+1.96) + 0.73 (y’day +2.16)
538 Projected Win %: Ohio 51%-49% (y’day 52-48); Colorado 58%-42% (no change)
Weekly Battleground States PollOfPollAverages
National polls may be misleading, so each week we check the movement in 8 battlegound States, calculating the average from the ”poll-averages pollsters” 538, Pollster and RCP.
All 8 states moved towards McCain this week. In Nevada Mcain added to his lead, and wrested the lead from Obama in Virginia. Obama kept the lead in Ohio and Colorado, but the gap has narrowed. Bear in mind that if McCain were to win all 4 of these states, if the other 43 States remain red or blue as per the 2004 election, then McCain would win the election.
Iowa and New Mexico look safe for Obama, but Michigan and New Hampshire are not slamdunks with a slightly reduced lead.
538 Pollster RCP ChimbaChumbaAverage
Nevada (5) -2.5 -2.7 -1.5 Obama -2.23 (last week -1.0)
Ohio (20) +0.3 +3.6 +0.5 Obama +1.46 (last week +1.8)
Virginia (13) -0.9 +0.9 -0.6 Obama -0.20 (last week +1.3)
Colorado (9) +0.9 +0.9 +0.4 Obama +0.73 (last week +1.7)
Iowa (7) +5.2 +6.0 +5.7 Obama +5.6 (last week +5.9)
New Mexico (5) +4.2 +8.2 +5.6 Obama +6.0 (last week +6.3)
Michigan (17) +2.8 +5.4 +3.2 Obama +3.8 (last week +4.0)
New Hamp. (4) +2.4 +6.1 +1.4 Obama +3.3 (last wk +3.6
Average (all 8 States) +1.55 +3.55 +1.84 Obama +2.31
Last week average +2.55 +3.76 +2.60 Obama +2.95
ChimbaChumba says - Last week when we ran this McCain was at $3.10. Given McCain has improved in the specific polling in key States, and the national polls also showed improvement for McCain, it is inexplicable why McCain’s odds have drifted to $3.15 as at today. One of those prices was wrong. My gut says the betting market is currently out of whack with what the polls are showing, and the $3.15 on offer for McCain is a value bet.
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