McCain hits the front in 2008 Presidential race?
The Pollsters & ChimbaChumba’s PollOfPollAverages
Obama McCain
Pollster 45.2 - 43.0 (+ 2.2%) (y’day +2.3%)
CNN 47.0 - 41.0 (+ 6.0%) (no change)
RCP 45.4 - 41.8 (+ 3.6%) (y’day +3.2%)
538 49.1 - 48.2 (+ 0.9%) (y’day +1.2)
So in Ohio, RCP and 538 both have McCain in the lead, but Pollster’s +3.3% for Obama in Ohio outweighs the other two pollsters, enabling Obama to keep a narrow 0.3% lead in the ChimbaChumba Ohio PollOfPollAverages. The Pollster number +3.3% is arguably wonky, the calculation being too heavily influenced by what is now old polling data. We prefer RCP and 538’s methodology, which either eliminate old data, or give it less weight.
If McCain does have the poll lead in Ohio (and he does if we toss out the wonky Pollster number), then McCain has now taken the Electoral Vote lead as measured under the Rasmussen “State by State Balance of Power Calculator” by 1 EV vote!! McCain “takes the lead” if we allocate Rasmussen’s “tossup” and “leaner” states based on what might be called “the best current polls”, which give McCain the lead in Virginia, Nevada, Ohio and Colorado.
Obviously this “lead” is extremely narrow, and can evaporate overnight. The fluctuating state of the race is shown in today’s national poll from Gallup that puts Obama back in front by 3 points. Yesterday Gallup had the race tied, and had McCain +1 the day before.
What is clear though is that Obama is not currently a comfortable frontrunner, a position many argued he enjoyed after securing the nomination.
Yesterday we quoted David Plouffe, Obama’s campaign manager, saying “there are 18 states that are battlegrounds for a reason, and they’ll be decided by 2 to 4 points. I don’t care about national polls.” ChimbaChumba thinks that today he might care more about national polls (Gallup), and be less interested in the situation in specific states!
Which leads me to a related topic - one important variable punters have to try and cope with, in trying to assess which candidate is a value bet, is the unique nature of American elections. Firstly, voters need to be registered to vote. Secondly, they need to “turn out” to vote (it is non-compulsory voting). Obama’s team has some good campaigning form, both in getting new registrations, and in GOTV (get out the vote). The unknown factor for punters is whether the polls can be relied on as our formguide, or whether they may be misleading because they fail to measure the impact of good or bad campaign skills (registrations, GOTV). Plouffe tells the DEM faithful not to worry about the trend in the polls in blue states like Ohio and Pennsylvania (where Hillary defeated Obama in the primaries), and then goes on to argue the Obama campaign will actually turn some red states blue e.g. Virginia. Is Plouffe selling us golddust or bulldust in this regard? Do we punt our money based on the current polls, or hold back because we believe the Obama/Plouffe line that the current polls mean nothing?
Conclusion - Open your wallet on McCain at $3.15. The election is decided by what happens in battleground states, not national total votes. If you have to risk cash, I’d rather risk it based on poll numbers, not on Plouffe’s talk. The poll winds have shifted in McCain’s direction in key battlegrounds, indicating the Betfair price of $3.15 for McCain is “over the odds” i.e. the Betfair price assumes it is a 67.2% - 32.8% contest. The “Handicappers” both re-rated the contest today, supporting the view McCain is a value bet - see comparison below.
538 Electoral Predictions Obama 56.0% - McCain 44.0%
Rasmussen Balance of Power Calculator Obama 59.9% - McCain 40.1%
Betfair price Obama 67.2% - McCain 32.8%
