August 9, 2008
By ChimbaChumba
The USA Presidential election is based on electoral colleges, so national polls may be misleading. As a reality check, we will monitor the weekly movement in 8 key States, calculating the “ChimbaChumba key States poll of pollaverages”, being an average from 3 ”poll-averages” pollsters.
The 8 States we have chosen are the 3 States rated by Rasmussen as “tossups” (Nevada, Ohio, Virginia), the 3 States rated by Rasmussen as “Leans Dem” won by Bush in 2004 (Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico), and 2 of the States Rasmussen rates as “leans Dem” (New Hampshire, Michigan) that were won narrowly by Kerry in 2004.
If the other 43 States remain red or blue as per the 2004 election, then from this sample of 8 States, McCain would need to win 47 of the 80 electoral college votes in these 8 States e.g. all 3 “tossups” (38)+ Colorado (9) = 47, or all 3 “tossups” (38) + Iowa (7) + New Hampshire (4) = 49.
538 Pollster RCP ChimbaChumbaAverage
Nevada (5) -1.2 -3.6 +1.7 Obama -1.0
Ohio (20) +1.4 +3.6 +0.5 Obama +1.8
Virginia (13) +0.6 +2.6 +1.0 Obama +1.3
Colorado (9) +1.7 +1.7 +1.7 Obama +1.7
Iowa (7) +6.0 +6.1 +5.7 Obama +5.9
New Mexico (5) +5.2 +8.2 +5.6 Obama +6.3
Michigan (17) +3.4 +5.4 +3.2 Obama +4.0
New Hampshire (4) +3.3 +6.1 +1.4 Obama +3.6
Poll Average (all 8 States) +2.55 +3.76 +2.60 Obama +2.95
Last week average n/a n/a n/a n/a
ChimbaChumba Comment: Obama enjoyed a few small poll bounces in July after securing the nomination and also whilst on his overseas jaunt. These poll bounces (if they were “real”) proved temporary. But the pundits both overstated the polling blips, and remained spellbound with Obama long after it was clear the polls were telling us the race was not over.
The daily froth and bubble that suggested McCain was a dead man walking seemed to skew the betting market, with McCain drifting to $3.70/$3.80 in mid-July. By 1 August McCain was back in to $3.22, tightened further to $3.02 over the last few days, and settled at $3.10 today.
The July polling, and remember it was only July with the election 3-4 months away, did not justify McCain’s price of $3.70/$3.80. The individual State polls shown above are not all that different to 3 weeks ago, and it is obvious from those that McCain remains in the race. We do not need look beyond the above 8 states to gauge the odds. There is no evidence Obama can turn blue states red, and McCain won’t be painting red states blue.
I lean towards thinking McCain is still a value bet at $3.10 (provided he doesn’t fall off the twig). Who knows whether the current polls are accurate, particularly with the first African-American candidate. But if they are accurate, with 3 months of campaign left, given the polls indicate a close race I would rather take $3.10 about McCain now, than $1.55 for Obama.
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