National polls move to Obama
ChimbaChumba’s PollOfPollAverages” (national polls)
Pollster 46.5 - 44.9 = Obama +1.6% (y’day +1.9%)
CNN 46.0 - 42.0 = Obama + 4.0% (no change)
RCP 47.2 - 44.3 = Obama + 2.9% (y’day +1.8%)
538 EP 48.8 - 48.0 = Obama + 0.8 (no change)
Gallup 48.0 - 42.0 = Obama +6.0 (y’day +1.0)
ChimbaChumbaAverage: Obama +3.06% (y’day +1.90%)
Big bounce for Obama today, mainly on the back of Gallup. Is this the start of the traditional “convention bounce”, or is that icing on Obama’s cake yet to come? Bear in mind historically DEM “poll convention bounces” have been 7-9% (Carter, Mondale, Dukakis and Gore). Clinton 2000 was +16%! Only the hack Kerry in 2004 broke the cycle, going minus! This makes the next 10 days a tricky period for punters, until we see polls about 1 week after the GOP convention. You have to decide whether poll movements are meaningful, or a temporary aberration. But the uncertainty creates opportunity for the punter that reads it right. As mentioned a few days ago, I think McCain is over the odds, but recommend waiting to see if the betting market misreads what might be a mere convention bounce that causes McCain’s price to drift unduly. But it takes balls of steel to back McCain when Gallup (the gold standard) has Obama +6.0%. As you can see below, McCain’s price has drifted a little. Optimum timing for a bet might be about 3-5 days from now, when DEM convention bounce (if there is any) has seeped fully into the polls. But remember, Conventions and VEEP’s is not when this election will be decided; assuming Obama doesn’t roll over McCain on back of Bush/Cheney backlash, the election will be ultimately decided when the debates start - if debates go one way or the otehr the polls will follow. Only once debates start can we put faith in the polls and make a clearer assessment of the odds for each horse.
Betting Market (Betfair): Obama $1.58, McCain $2.80 (y’day $1.64, $2.74)
The Handicappers - Obama’s Win Percentage
Betfair ($1.58 adjusted to 100% price) - 63.80% (y’day 62.44%)
538 Electoral Predictions - 57.50% (y’day 58.00%)
Rasmussen Balance of Power Calculator - 60.20% (y’day 59.00%)
ChimbaChumba’s Daily “PollofPollAverages” in key battleground states, and the Electoral College vote tracker
The first poll on this blog measures the average of national polls. In this section we keep a daily watch on state polls in Ohio & Colorado, two key battleground states. Every Saturday we expand the analysis to 8 battleground states. In this section we also include a daily update of the Electoral College vote count from all states, awarding the electoral votes for each state based on today’s poll average for each specific state (i.e. disregarding the national polls).
ChimbaChumba’s Daily Poll Average - Ohio & Colorado
McCain’s lead in Ohio a little down, Obama’s lead in Colorado a little up (sigh - exact opposite of y’day). No change to overall EV situation, with Obama still winning the Presidential election on the back of Colorado.
The numbers shown in our Ohio/Colorado table below refer to Obama’s margin + or -
Ohio Colorado
RCP -1.2 (no change) +0.4 (no change)
Pollster +1.7 (y’day +1.3) +1.8 (y’day +1.7)
538 (trend-adjusted) -1.2 (no change) +0.8 (no change)
CC’s PollOfPollAverages: -0.23 (y’day-0.36) +1.0 (y’day +0.96)
ChimbaChumba’s Electoral College Vote Tracker
Obama: 260 EC votes + New Hampshire(4) + Colorado(9) = 273 EC votes (no change)
McCain: 227 EC votes + Ohio(20) + Virginia(13) + Nevada(5) = 265 EC votes (no change)
