Election day betting
ChimbaChumba “PollOfPollAverages” (national polls)
We create our own average from 5 pollsters that themselves do a form of “poll-averaging”. Hopefully we smooth out the bumps or discrepancies from the different methodologies, thereby creating a more reliable number as a “form-guide” for betting on the 2008 USA Presidential election. Our average is named the “ChimbaChumba Average”.
Pollster Obama +7.6%
CNN Obama + 8.0%
RCP Obama + 7.6%
538 EP Obama + 6.1%
Gallup Obama +8.0%
“ChimbaChumba Average” +7.46%
Betfair (16.00 ET time) - Obama $1.05, McCain $18.00
Betfair (16.25 ET time) - Obama $1.06, McCain $17.50
Betfair (16.38 ET time) - Obama $1.09, McCain $12.50
Betfair (16.50 ET time) - Obama $1.06, McCain $16.00
Betfair (17.20 ET time) - Obama $1.05, McCain $19.00
McCain drifts to $8.00, but a glimmer of hope from Gallup and the 3rd debate
Obama seemed to rise above the charges and show his reasonableness and his ability to inspire confidence. McCain was like a trial lawyer, hammering out his points, but Obama came across with dignity.
Remember 1992. Clinton had a big lead over George Bush Sr. with three weeks to go. But then Bush and Quayle hammered him over the tax issue and his big spending plans. Day after day, the Republicans gained, and Clinton fell back. By the Thursday before the Tuesday election, Bush had gained the lead. Ultimately Clinton was saved at the bell by the announcement by Special Prosecutor Lawrence Walsh that he was going to indict Bush’s Defense Secretary Cap Weinberger. That restored the Clinton lead and delivered the victory to him.
McCain is not as good on television as Obama is. So the immediate impact of the debate was to help Obama.
But the tax-and-spend issue is the one that Republicans want at the center of the race, and McCain put it there.
So this may turn out to have been a turning point for McCain, after all.
McCain $6.00 arbitrage opportunity; 3rd and final debate the catalyst?
| Betfair odds: McCain $6.00, Obama $1.21ChimbaChumba says - read what Gallup says below. Read earlier blogs. The poll gap will close at some stage, and maybe Gallup is right to suggest the 3rd and final debate tomorrow might be the catalyst. If that happens, then you unload the whole bet on Obama and bank the profit. It might be you bet today, and get to unload and arbitrage within 3-7 days.
per Wikipedia: October 15 2008: The Third and final CPD Presidential Debate will be hosted in Hempstead, New York at Hofstra University, and will focus on Domestic and Economic Policy. Like the first CPD debate, this debate will be formatted into nine nine-minute segments, with the moderator (Bob Schieffer) introducing the topics. from Gallup today: “Recent Gallup polling suggests that while Barack Obama leads John McCain on the ballot and has clear strengths on key dimensions such as the economy, McCain himself is not without his own strengths, which he could in theory build on in the third and final presidential debate“. |
| Read more at GALLUP.com. |
Dow crash creates opportunity to bet McCain @ $6.00
We only need watch Gallup whilst Obama holds a commanding lead. So commanding, McCain is now $6.00 at Betfair.
If we cut’n'paste from 2 sources today we read as follows -
“The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its most volatile day ever Friday, oscillating more than one thousand points before ending up 128 points down, capping the worst week in the Dow’s 112-year history. The index lost 18.2 percent of its value between the opening bell Monday and closing bell Friday. Amid the panic” , “Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 8-10 finds Barack Obama leading John McCain, 51% to 42%. This is the sixth straight day Obama has held a sizeable — roughly 10-point — lead in the race”.
So with 24 days to election day, the most favourable conditions for a DEM since 1976, and the added windfall of the worst week for the Dow in 112 years, and Obama is only +9 ponts on Gallup? Will the voters still overwhelmingly see Obama as the saviour once the financial dust settles? Is Obama promising more or less dodgy loans from Fannie and Freddie in 2009?
At 538 Electoral Projections Obama leads Florida (+4.5), Nevada (+3.5), Ohio (+3.1), Colorado (+6.7) and Virginia (+6.4). Is it implausible for McCain to retake the poll lead in those States in next 20 days? If he does, obviously the gap closes in New Mexico and New Hampshire at same time. If that happens what will be the odds? Not $6.00 anyway…..
ChimbaChumba says - Take the $6.00 for McCain today, and lay off the whole bet when the poll gap closes about 5 days from the election. Remember, you are not betting on McCain winning, just that his poll numbers and his odds will tighten sometime between now and 4 November 2008.
Have a look at this article highlighting the vagaries of polling data and election day reality. http://www.overdetermined.net/site/content/bradley-reverse-bradley-and-double-secret-un-bradley
Also read below what Dick Morris says today (ex-Clinton adviser, but a GOP baracker):
Now the attention should logically shift to Obama. He is way ahead and McCain is nowhere to be seen. Few give McCain any chance and the debate is over whether the race is over already. This is, of course, the ideal environment for a McCain surge. All attention would normally focus on the Democrat. But it isn’t. Every American checks the market before they check the polls. The ongoing anxiety over the stock market is not only giving more and more people reason to hate the Republicans of Wall Street and their allies in Washington, but it is keeping us from focusing on Obama.
If ever the market stabilizes, Americans will be fascinated by the Ayers-Obama ties and the relationship between Farrakhan and the Democratic nominee. The increasing evidence that ACORN is committing voter fraud, registering people over and over again in anticipation of stuffing the ballot box on election day. As ACORN gets raided by the FBI, it will hurt Obama. He was general counsel to its Illinois affiliate and Obama channeled millions to the radical group when he got control over the money William Ayers got from the Annenberg Foundation.
All of these ties are damning for Obama and will reinforce the doubts that Rev. Wright first put in our minds. They will lead people to question Obama’s values and his fitness for the presidency. A man whose spiritual advisor is Rev Wright, whose financial backer is Rezco, and whose first major employer was William Ayers might not be a good choice for president. But for these associations to loom large enough in our consciousness to impact our vote, the market has to settle down so we can hear the campaign over its din.
McCain down and out? try some comedy instead
ChimbaChumba has egg on face at the moment. He was feeling pretty good when McCain shortened to $2.20 in early September post-Palin. But what a difference a month makes in politics.
McCain is now $5.30, and Obama leads by 11% from the “gold standard” Gallup.
Gallup also says today “While 6% of voters say they are less likely to vote for Barack Obama because of his race, 9% say they are more likely to vote for him, making the impact of his race a neutral to slightly positive factor when all voters’ self-reported attitudes are taken into account”. ChimbaChumba does not know whether this is BS, but if its true, and there is no Bradley effect, in times of stress comedy is the last refuge of the scoundrel. Click on this.
http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/187.html
Is it possible the the economic and financial mess is just shortb term static screwing up the polls? Will it wash out in few weeks and the poll gap narrow? When the voters remember it was the DEMs that caused the Fannie/Freddie imbroglio? Regardless, have they truly embraced Obama as the saviour in troubled times? Is this a betting opportunity, or is McCain actually dead in the water? He sorta looks pretty damn dead to me but….
Perhaps this is the golden moment in the campaign where the betting market (the punters) have made the mistake of listening to the pundits and the betting market is based on the same dumbness as the pundit market? Obviously it gets hard to remain a bull when 99% of your fellow bulls abandon ship (and 100% of the bears move en-masse to the other side of the ship).
But the smart punter (the sole bull still roaming the paddock hunting for a heifer in heat) knows that sometimes that is the time when the betting opportunity may be the juiciest. Bear in mind the sole bull also knows McCain might be shooting blanks, Viagra or not. But you do not lose much when the odds are $5.30.
ChimbaChumba says: polish the balls of steel needed to ante up on McCain when everyone has written him off. Bank on the poll race tightening, and take the profit when/if the Gallup margin reduces. Remember, Obama is now the established front-runner, and may cop a bit more heat from the press. CNN may sound a little like FOX for the next few weeks. Dick Morris argues that when Obama became the established front-runner vs Hillary, the press fell out of love with Obama to some degree, and that is when Hillary got back in the race and beat Obama in what we now know were the dead-rubber primaries.
Will history repeat? Remember, if Obama’s Gallup lead is sliced to 2- 3 - 4 points, lay off and take the profit. Don’t risk money on McCain actually making it to the Whitehouse. Just bet on the fact that the pundits will get tougher on Obma, as will the GOP get more desperate and strident, and there might be a brief period where the combined effect closes the poll gap and the odds tighten accordingly.
On the other hand, read this article “Dem strategists see landslide in the making” and make up your own mind. The phrase “economic tsunami” is pretty spooky, not to mention the rest.
